Russia’s restrained reaction to Sweden’s and Finland’s accession to NATO reflects not the absence of symmetrical countermeasures, but an inevitability that has already become accustomed to a few years ago. Looking at how these countries annually increased military spending, approaching the target 2% of GDP (the Finns have already reached it), as well as their participation in major joint exercises, exchanges, military programs of the alliance, no insights have happened now.

The special operation in Ukraine was only a trigger for the accelerated entry of these countries into the alliance, but by no means the very reason. NATO representatives worked on these countries for a long time and tried in every possible way to prove outgoing aggression from Russia. After the start of the NMD, they even sent additional forces to the Baltic region to demonstrate the fight against “Russian aggression”. And all this is happening against the backdrop of joint military exercises between Finland and Sweden.

But even as a member of NATO, the Finns and Swedes want to maintain their military neutrality, at least partially. Sweden has already announced that it is not going to place nuclear weapons and military bases on its territory.

As for Russia, it will have to strengthen the grouping of ground forces and air defense on the border, as well as the fleet in the Gulf of Finland. But there will be no cardinal changes in military policy.