Expert opinion. Director of the Institute for Political Studies Sergey Markov, author of the Markov Logic telegram channel, on the reasons for the lack of a Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Information resources write about Bakhmut, but in Bakhmut, according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, practically only the Wagner PMC is fighting. And where is the huge Russian army? This is a grouping of up to half a million people, taking into account the 300,000 previously mobilized. Where is she? Is it broken into platoons and is fighting local battles along the entire vast section of the 1,000-kilometer front?
No, it is believed that this army, including 300 thousand mobilized, was created in order to attack, to conduct a large strategic offensive in Ukraine. But this offensive was expected in December, January, February. Winter passed, but the Russian big offensive never happened. Why?
There are several versions, explanations of this main riddle. The first version is the weather. The thaw continued throughout the winter, there was no solid ground, so the possibilities of an offensive were noticeably hampered by weather conditions. Now everyone will be waiting for the start of summer weather and solid ground?
The second version is the unpreparedness of the Russian army. This has its own logic, because one of the main reasons for the failure of the Russian army was the lag of our army behind the Ukrainian one in the number of soldiers, weapons, and shells. It is logical that, having failed because of this shortcoming, the leadership of the Russian army wants to accumulate huge reserves. However, apparently, the Russian economy was unable to fulfill these orders of the Russian army, failed to arm 300,000 people for a major offensive operation.
The third reason is that attempts are being made to militarily secure the conditions for an offensive. Air support is very important for the offensive. So far, however, Russian aviation has no dominance. The Ukrainian air defense system does not allow aviation to turn around, probing and preparations are underway to suppress the Ukrainian air defense system. It takes a long time.
The fourth possible reason is some strategic dangers. At a time when everyone is expecting a Russian offensive, but it is not happening, the Ukrainian army is being armed at the same time. It turns out that if the Russian army starts to advance, then trained Ukrainian reserves hit it, and the Russian army finds itself in a difficult situation.
It may be easier to wait for the Ukrainian offensive that will inevitably occur. And then defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine, ensuring the collapse of the entire Ukrainian front. This is to some extent a repetition of the possible format of the Battle of Kursk.
The fifth possible explanation is the search for weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense. The Kiev General Staff has repeatedly pointed out that the Russian army carries out many small strikes, probing for weaknesses. Such, by the way, was the Ukrainian tactics last autumn. Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine found a gap in the area of Balakleya, Izyum and Kupyansk – it was there that Ukraine delivered its main blows. Perhaps the Russian army cannot yet find these weak points.
Some believe that the catastrophic loss of time is the style of the current military campaign, that Russia is simply used to it. They say that this is due to some internal mechanisms.
Some Western analysts believe that Russia is incapable of a major offensive for a variety of reasons, including economic ones.
Surely we will hear different versions, but after a while we will definitely find out about the true reasons. Everything hidden becomes clear.