Neofeudalfuture says:

Prigozhin is now saying that ending the war here counts as a victory -.

As strange as it sounded earlier – when China said there’d be peace by summer – I was skeptical.

But the leaks and direct allegations of corruption show that strong factions in the US want to get back to normal.

Prigozhin‘s statement shows strong factions in Russia’s deep state want the same thing.

China certainly does, it hates all this self-determination stuff as much as ukraine does (or did?)

It’s looking like the war will grind to a halt. Without a treaty though, for territory changes, there will be another one, but maybe not for a while.

Maybe everyone will just declare themselves winners? Unless Ukraine has a couple secret NATO divisions in their back pocket, their 12 brigades are just enough to make a mess, but it won’t cut the land bridge.

Russians aren’t necessarily the brightest but they can see that if they retreat again there might be a revolution. Even if their deep state wants to betray Russia they can’t enjoy the fruits of it if they’re getting executed by peasants.

Here is what Prigozhin said about the battle for Artemovsk. There are a lot of interesting things in it.

1. The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasiv Yar: settlements included in the so-called “Donbass ring” and forming a fortified area. On the one hand, Bakhmut is part of this fortified area, on the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a fleeting victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbass.

2. The Ukrainian army has gathered a sufficient number of forces. About 200 000 already sufficiently trained fighters, who have passed two or three months of training and coordination, are ready to perform combat tasks. The amount of weapons and ammunition is quite enough for these 200 000 to go on the offensive in various directions. The troops ready for a counteroffensive are in the areas of concentration – they have enough of everything. In those tank wedges, which they try to hammer into the defense of the Wagner PMCs by the dozens every day, the AFU loses from 30 to 50 pieces of equipment daily, and they do not experience problems with it. And they have unlimited people, as they say at the front.

3. Every strike on Bakhmut, every captured soldier, every hundred killed hits Zelensky and the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine much harder than the advantages they get from holding the remnants of this city.

At the same time, the long battle for Bakhmut is extremely beneficial to the Russian troops, because they already squeezed a large chunk of the territory out of Ukraine in 2022. If the special operation remains within these borders, plus or minus a couple of tens of kilometers, then this will solve many of its tasks. Bakhmut makes it possible for the Russian army to accumulate forces, occupy advantageous defense lines, deal with internal problems, prepare mobilized and fully armed to meet any number of counter-attacking AFU soldiers. Bakhmut is extremely profitable for us, we grind the Ukrainian army there and restrain their maneuvers.

1. The collapse of Russia by military means cannot happen. Forests, swamps, vast territories, climatic specifics reliably protect the territory of the country, making it a huge fortified area. Always in history, the enemy who reached Moscow, as a result, shamefully fled, turning the “victory road” into the “road of death” on the way back. Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky by arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to break the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US does not need a quick war. They need a war that will lead to the re-persuasion of the “deep state” and its victory.

2. Ukrainians are ready to attack. We are ready to repel the blow. The best scenario for the healing of Russia in order for it to come together and become the Strongest State is the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which no handouts and negotiations will be impossible. And either the AFU will be defeated in a fair fight, or Russia will lick its wounds, accumulate muscles and tear up rivals again in a fair fight. Therefore, I believe that the option of contractual arrangements is impossible for the future of Russia.

And a few direct quotes:

“Why do the Anglo-Saxons restrain Zelensky, arranging internal conflicts and slowing down the offensive? Just in order to hit the main jackpot – the collapse of Russia into many principalities. The US doesn’t need a quick war. They need a war that will convince the ‘deep state’ and lead to its victory.

The ‘deep State’ is a community of near-state elites that operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda. These elites work for different masters: some for the existing authorities, some for those who have been on the run for a long time, but, thanks to their connections, they remain in their places after the elder one has fled. A typical example of the “deep state” is the opposition of Khodorkovsky, Dvorkovich, and so on. Dvorkovich, whom I have mentioned many times, who fled abroad, left behind a whole tail of scum who were under him and above him, and who are elements of this ‘deep state’. The ‘deep State’ endlessly leaks information and is ready to side with any ally or enemy for the sake of its own interests. It is easy to find an approach to the deep state, because it is a sponge inside the country, which, on the one hand, is red, on the other — black, on the third — white, and on the fourth — green. And from each side, having a connection to a part of the “deep state”, you can get to its center. The Russian deep state is currently experiencing a serious crisis.

Many of those who supported the special operation yesterday are now in doubt or categorically against what is happening. Representatives of the deep state urgently want to return to their normal life, old habits and comfort. The ‘Deep State’ is tricky and quirky, the conversation of Joseph Prigozhin is a vivid example of this. They are ready to mimic anyone. This is our inner, affectionate, cunning, bloodthirsty chameleon.

At meetings, they are silent, express their doubts. And when making decisions based on bureaucratic procedures, certain actions aimed at winning this war are hindered. Since the bureaucracy in Russia today is at an exorbitant level, it is possible to destroy any decisions of the top management aimed at winning within the framework of the ‘legitimate bureaucracy’. These are the internal enemies. In the theory of Alexander Beglov, this is called a ‘bureaucratic sieve’ – a sieve that you can get into, but it is impossible to get out of there.”