by Mike Ryan

Asking the question, “Why is Vladimir Putin backing Russian General Valery Gerasimov after four key setbacks during the war in Ukraine?” Major General Mick Ryan (Australia), expert analyst at the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, argues as follows:

(a) In any war, the general staff of the enemy and his leadership is the most desirable target. The elimination of the head of the General Staff leads to random planning and other unpleasant things. This is very effective, “especially given that modern military forces rely on communications and decision support tools based on AI.” However, a particular Russian commander does not seem to be the target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. “This particular senior officer has been ineffective since the start of the war, so much so that it sometimes looks like he’s working for the other side.”

(b) We are talking about General Valery Gerasimov, “a four-time loser.” He made a fatal mistake when planning the actions of the RF Armed Forces at the first stage of the war, he had no alternative plans. He completely failed the start of mobilization, when it became clear that without it there was no way – he did not even foresee such a possibility – and moreover, apparently, he simply did not know about the old Soviet system of mobilization. He (even before the war), together with Sergei Shoigu, was responsible for the modernization program of the Russian Federation, and completely failed it. And finally, it was he who, leading the “January offensive”, achieved nothing.

(c) Given this record of poor performance, one might have thought that Gerasimov’s days might be numbered. But no. Of course, he is incompetent, but on the other hand “he is very well versed in palace politics and is very loyal to Putin.” The Kremlin values loyalty above competence. And besides, losers, “as Gerasimov may find out in the future, make excellent scapegoats.”

(d) The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected in the near future. In a situation where “Gerasimov’s sluggish and ineffective actions this year have consumed a large amount of ammunition, equipment and manpower. This will limit the ability of Gerasimov to effectively respond to Ukrainian offensives. Regardless of the number of obstacles that his troops erect for defense, the Russians will have to defend huge front line. This is a task that will challenge the best of armies, and the Russians can hardly be called such.”

Summary. “There is an old saying: ‘When your enemy is wrong, don’t stand in his way.’ In this war so far, Gerasimov has shown great talent for strategic mistakes. Therefore, the Ukrainians will not only avoid targeting Gerasimov, but they will probably do everything possible for Gerasimov to stay in power because, given his track record and the upcoming Ukrainian offensives, Gerasimov is likely to go from a four-time loser to a five-time loser in the coming months.”