by Germán Gorraiz López – Political analyst
Summary: The cruel casualties in Gaza have provoked a split in the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, there are signs of a possible Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which could benefit Netanyahu. If Biden loses and thus Trump wins, the Israeli Prime-Minister will be granted exoneration for all current and forthcoming crimes in Gaza and Lebanon (maybe).
The asymmetry of the punishment carried out by Israel in Gaza has provoked disaffection towards Biden in the left wing of the Democratic Party. And at the same time a proverbial black swan has popped up during Biden’s reelection campaign: the protests by university students at Columbia University and UCLA against the invasion of Gaza and the violent eviction of them by the police. This protest movement extended to the rest of US universities (recalling the 1968 protests against the Vietnam War) provoking a schism within the Democratic Party and weakening the solidity of Biden’s nomination as presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention to be held in Chicago from August 19 to 22.
Such a set back for the Biden campaign could facilitate the triumphant return of Donald Trump in the November presidential elections. So the Biden Administration is desperately trying to get Netanyahu to declare “an indefinite truce” which would allow the exchange of Israeli hostages still held by Hamas as well as restore the circulation of humanitarian aid trucks for more than 1 million Palestinians confined in Rafah.
Thus, Biden would distinguish himself as a successful diplomat and clean up his image as a collaborator of Israel in the ethnic cleansing of Gaza, thus enabling him to present himself to left-wing Democrats as the winner of the truce in Gaza. This would bring him back up in the polls.
In this context, a recent telephone call between Biden and Netanyahu laid the foundations for an agreement that benefits both leaders. It consists of the total withdrawal of the Israeli army from Gaza, which will remain as a demilitarized zone under the control of the UN Blue Helmets. This also allows Israel to refocus its military campaign and target Lebanon.
For his part, after ending the Gaza campaign, Netanyahu reportedly decided to invade southern Lebanon and displace the 400,000 inhabitants across the Litani River, in the hope of gaining time until the foreseeable victory in November of Donald Trump. Netanyahu is probably certain that he can count on Trump’s blessings and have Trump exonerate him of all guilt before the International Criminal Court.
