by Claudiu A. Secara
How to interpret the latest re-configuration of U.S. electoral groupies vs. the stalemate in Ukraine? Well, apparently there is a recognition by the governing Globalists that their anti-Russian policies failed, in the short term, to cause Russia to capitulate. In the long term, this will generate a new chapter in the Cold War containment policy. But Russia is prepared to go back to closing itself up within its own shell. That would mean another generation or two of Cold War, at best (for the U.S.), that would give the U.S. some breathing space. But the U.S. is no longer in the same position as in its youthful days. Now it is an aging, sclerotic, dysfunctional state – so that the most likely scenario is that the dollar’s dominance cannot survive for another generation or two.
This is what Trump’s people see, and they are flipping from their “Make America Great Again” slogan to “Let’s not lose the dollar as the world’s currency and become a third-world country overnight.”
Interestingly, the Democrats have seized on that very real possibility and are dumping the extra-bellicose Biden for Kamala. The difference? She has now embraced Trump’s position, which is, “let’s save the dollar (and focus less on Ukraine).”
On the Russian side, the options are not much better. In Ukraine they could start a Gaza-like offensive, a scorched-earth military campaign, maybe even using tactical nukes. But that would definitely give NATO a casus belli, to intervene directly. And as Putin has emphasized several times, 150 million Russians cannot succeed against an 800-million NATO+ alliance of a total of 57 nations in an all-out total war.
Without a quick, decisive military victory, Russia will be confronted with diminishing economic options. The sanctions are starting to bite pretty deeply into Russia’s real economy. Despite President Putin’s up-beat presentation at the Far East Economic Forum in Vladivostok, and the grandiose future plans for development especially in the Far East, Russia’s economic situation is becoming quite difficult. The Power of Siberia II gas pipeline to China has been cancelled by the Chinese. The big Chinese bank Sinopec has stopped doing business with Russia. And worst of all, as revealed by Izvestia, as of August 15 the bank-to-bank window of foreign exchange with China has been torpedoed by the sanctions. Down by 98%, it is mostly relegated to the cumbersome route of Russian central bank to China’s Central bank. This has already caused a significant (3%) decline in imports to Russia. More Western sanctions against Chinese entities will further impair Russia’s economy. After only two and a half years of war in Ukraine, the Russian economy is starting to suffer. Imagine another ten years on this course of sanctions extended to third-party countries. That would really damage Russia.
The two giants are definitely hurting, and more sickness lies ahead for both of them. Meanwhile China, India, even Iran are continuing to flourish. Not a good perspective for the two giants. The question is: Who is going to blink first? The odds are that Kamala will win the Presidency, according to Alan Lichtman – who claims he’s accurately predicted the US Presidents for the last 40 years.
Are we going to have a Kamala presidency with a Trumpian platform? Quite possibly.
