IGOR STRELKOV (letter fragment):
Regarding the question of assessments/analysis of the situation — I still receive too little information for reliable “tactical” forecasts. “Strategically” “everything is bad” — if the “bet on Trump” (in my opinion — initially a failure, but I do not insist on 100% reliability of my opinion) “does not work out”, — then the next year (or even the end of the current one) will become a very serious test for our state.

I have repeatedly voiced the reasons for this even before my arrest (and long before it):

— the “imitation” style of leadership and state administration led to the fact that “on paper” the Russian Federation looked extremely impressive in all respects (including in terms of military power). In reality, a significant part of our power (in some places — very significant) turned out to be “inflated”. And now the needs of the war far exceed the capabilities of our military-industrial complex, and the war has long ago “eaten up” or is “eating up” all the reserves of new weapons.

The same applies to trained human resources, which for 2.5 years were spent (and are still being spent) as if they were endless and inexhaustible. While the main “ready” (and relatively painlessly torn away from the economy) war has already “eaten up” without a trace.

— the wretchedness (to the point of complete absence) of strategic planning and the lowest quality of tactical planning have already led us to a complete impasse (both in strategy and tactics), loss of initiative to the state of “amoebic reaction to irritants” — i.e. The military and industrial machines react to problems that have arisen only at the moment when these problems have already become critically dangerous.

— There was no talk of making any long-term forecasts 2.5 years ago, and there is none now (which is not surprising, given the “amazing preservation of old reliable personnel” in all the main VIP positions, except, perhaps, (and even then, only partially) the Ministry of Defense. There is either no search for a way out of the impasse at all (which is logical, since the level of necessary intelligence and competence significantly exceeds that available to the said VIP officials), or we are simply unable to discern it (due to the lack of visible results, even preliminary ones.

— The time to correct the grossest mistakes (which our enemies in the West and the so-called “Ukraine” kindly provided us with due to their own incompetence and degradation) was not even “wasted” — it was simply “missed.” And now it is practically gone. The general systemic military-political crisis will very soon turn into a military-economic one. Perhaps — following the example of 1917, and on it will be “superimposed” by the growing fatigue from the senseless and unclear (in terms of goals) war on the part of the population. And without real strategic (and not tactical – carried out according to the principle of “Trishkin’s caftan”, as now) changes and measures – we will face extremely unpleasant consequences, the quantity and quality of which will constantly increase (in terms of negative consequences for the state and the country as a whole).

This is all I want/can write for now.

With respect, I am waiting for letters and reports,

I. V. Girkin
09/28/2024, Kirovo-Chepetsk