by Sergey Markov (translated by Algora)

Is the front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces collapsing? In Russia, it is the position of the pro-war Ukrainian activists that is primarily broadcasted by the social media. Those activists often tend to panic, spread “defeatism,” and fear the collapse of the front. However, among the ranks of the leadership of Ukraine, optimistic assessments dominate. They believe that the Russian leadership has made several mistakes that ease the situation for Ukraine.

1. From the very beginning, having de facto taken Kharkov and blocked Kiev, Russia, soon and unexplainable, withdrew from these regions.

2. Throughout the successful year of 2024 for Russia, it has been fighting in areas of Donetsk Oblast that hold no strategic significance. Instead of striking strategically important cities like Kharkov and Nikolaev – Zaporizhia.

Therefore, Zelensky and his team believe that throughout 2024 and part of 2025, Russia will spend time storming muddy villages in the Donbas. They think that the strategic opportunity has been missed after the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive in 2023.

Yes, Russia will capture the Donbas. But Ukraine has already mentally said goodbye to it. A large part of Ukraine will remain an anti-Russia society. This means that Ukraine will win this war, and as a victor, it will gain access to the EU and NATO in one form or another.

Thus, Zelensky’s perspective is quite optimistic and stands in contrast to the panic and defeatism found on Ukrainian social media. His viewpoint exemplifies political long-term strategic logic.