Monthly Archives: December 2024

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Has Russia Reached its Peak, Followed by Decline?

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Ed. Note: Are we witnessing the moment when Russia has reached its peak? Will we see the start of the reversal of Russia’s economic upswing and a start of its economic decline?

It appears that the war against Russia is rising to a new level, the level of economic war. Two years ago seemed as if Europe committed suicide by cutting itself off from Russia’s oil and gas, but now it looks more like a well planned trap for Russia. Europe is now on course to extricate itself from its dependence on Russia as the newly developed reserves in the East Mediterranean region can more than offset Russia’s reserves. Russia’s only remaining market for its energy resources is China. But China is also under attack.

by Simon Watkins via Oil Price

  • Under Trump’s second term, the U.S. will boost efforts to replace Russian gas in Europe with alternative sources like LNG from Qatar, Egypt and Israel.
  • Egypt and Cyprus are emerging as critical gas hubs.
  • These energy strategies not only weaken Russia’s economic grip on Europe but also align with broader U.S. goals to counterbalance China’s growing global influence.

[ . . . ] with Donald Trump beginning his second term as U.S. President on 20 January, this part of the multi-pronged strategy to further diminish Russian influence in Europe is set to pick up pace. It is also a key part of the new Trump Presidential Administration’s push to destroy the financing at the heart of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ in the Middle East spearheaded by Iran and, in turn, to scupper the broader China-led strategy to replace the dominant influence of the U.S. and its key allies in the world with an alternative version in which China plays the dominant role.

The first reason why phasing out all Russia’s gas exports into Europe remains so critical is that the continent’s heavy dependence on these (and its oil exports too) led to a catastrophic failure to halt President Vladimir Putin’s vision to resuscitate the European Empire of the U.S.S.R. back in 2008 and then even more significantly in 2014…

However, the failure of the Putin-ordered full invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to secure the country within a week as he envisaged allowed the U.S. more leeway in moving to draw a line in Europe across which Russia should not venture. This was focused on cutting off as much as possible of the financing for its war in Ukraine that Russia still received from gas and oil exports into Europe. [ . . . ]

The pace of development of gas supplies in Egypt is spectacular. Not only does this country occupy a special political, economic, religious and cultural place in the Middle East and the Islamic world, but it also has huge gas reserves. They are very cautiously estimated at around 1.8 trillion cubic metres, and could be even higher if the assessments of those in charge of EU energy security are taken into account, contact de OilPrice.com in recent months. It is also the only country in the eastern Mediterranean region with operational LNG export capabilities and is therefore in an ideal position to become the main regional gas export hub. Equally important is its geographical positioning – the country controls the Suez Canal, through which about 10% of the world’s oil and LNG is transported.
It also controls the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline, which runs from the Ain Sokhna terminal in the Gulf of Suez near the Red Sea to the Port of Sidi Kerir, west of Alexandria, in the Mediterranean Sea. This is a crucial alternative to the Suez Canal for transporting oil from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. The importance of the Suez Canal to the global energy sector is also amplified by the fact that it is one of the few major transit points not controlled by China. The country has been through massive economic problems lately-it has not paid for a while the taxes due by its own national composition to foreign partners, but things are beginning to work out.
The attention of the same Western firms active in Egypt has also turned to the parallel gas hot spot in the eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus, which is now considering a new round of licensing for offshore natural gas exploration, according to recent comments by its energy minister, George Papanastasiou. Cyprus estimates that current untapped gas reserves are around 450 billion […]

Read more here: Oil Price

geopolitical issues

The US and the New Panamerican Scenarios

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by Germán Gorraiz López – Analyst

More Coups A-coming ?

The 2025-2030 five-year period will herald the emergence of a new multi-tentacled movement in the geopolitical landscape of Latin America. This “black wave” will entail the execution of “soft coups” aimed at replacing governments that are unresponsive to the demands of Washington with regimes that are under U.S. tutelage, thus rendering Manuel Ugarte’s vision of a Great Homeland an unattainable dream.

Return of the Monroe Doctrine with Trump

In a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Donald Trump, a future Republican candidate, asserted, “I am the only candidate who can make this promise: I will prevent World War III,” while criticizing the “excessive amount of weapons currently circulating in the world.” This suggests a potential return to the U.S. Isolationist Doctrine.

During a conference at the headquarters of the influential political magazine “The National Interest,” Trump outlined the core tenets of his foreign policy, summarized by the motto “America first.” This could effectively signal a revival of the Monroe Doctrine (America for the Americans) and a withdrawal of the U.S. from NATO military structures.

The Pacific Alliance: The U.S. Trojan Horse

Beneath the neoliberal façade of the Pacific Alliance lies a sophisticated geopolitical engineering project. Its ultimate objective is to undermine the political-integration project represented by UNASUR and intensify the isolation of progressive-populist governments in the region, particularly targeting Venezuela after the departure of the key architect of the Bolivarian Revolution, Hugo Chávez.

Another goal is to finalize the MERCOSUR economic integration project, established in 1991 with the signing of the Treaty of Asunción among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which later included Venezuela. Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Suriname, and Guyana are recognized as “Associated States.”

This phagocytic strategy aims to eventually unite the Pacific Arc by integrating Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, and ultimately incorporating Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay). This follows Sherman Kent’s “carrot and stick” theory expounded in his book “Strategic Intelligence for North American World Politics” (1949).

Bolivia and the Lithium War

Bolivia holds 70% of the world’s lithium reserves, a crucial element for manufacturing cell phones and electric vehicles. However, the complexity of its extraction and processing has hindered Bolivia’s ability to develop its own industry due to a lack of necessary capital and technology.

The return of leftist leadership with Luis Arce’s overwhelming electoral victory and the extreme polarization of the judicial system followed the arrest of former President Jeanine Áñez, who is accused of “sedition and terrorism.” The Biden Administration subsequently reminded the Bolivian Government of the need to uphold human rights and respect the principles of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. This was a clear warning that the Bolivian Government should facilitate the entry of Anglo-American companies and realign Bolivia with U.S.-friendly nations; otherwise, a new soft coup against Luis Arce could occur with the blessing of the Trump Administration.

Nicaragua in Trump’s Crosshairs?

China is undertaking the challenge of constructing a new canal in Nicaragua similar to the proposed Kra Isthmus Canal to bypass the congested Strait of Malacca, plagued by piracy. In 2010, China inaugurated a gas pipeline connecting with Turkmenistan, diversifying its energy sources away from dependence on Russia.

During Trump’s first term, the U.S. Congress passed the Nica Act (Nicaraguan Investment Conditionality Act of 2017), which aims to freeze international loans from U.S. satellite institutions (like the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank) to Nicaragua, with the intent of causing financial deprivation and economic suffocation.

In Trump’s second term, we might witness a color revolution orchestrated by the CIA aimed at forcing the ruling elites to call for new general elections, striving to end the Sandinista legacy and return Nicaragua to the orbit of U.S.-aligned countries.

Invasion of Panama

Trump commented on the Panama Canal in 2023, stating, “We built the Panama Canal and we should never have handed it over to the Panamanians because today it is in the hands of the Chinese.” This suggests that a repeat of the 1989 invasion of Panama (Operation Just Cause) could be on the table, returning the Canal to U.S. control and blocking Chinese ships from passing, which would force them to seek alternative, costlier routes.

Cuban Missile Crisis

Considering that Trump will maintain the outdated embargo on Cuba, it is likely that emotional detachment from the U.S. will grow in Havana. This could create an opening for the adept geopolitical strategist Putin to establish a new military collaboration treaty with Cuba, reminiscent of the secret pact signed in 1960 in Moscow between Raúl Castro and Khrushchev.

As Putin announced, the first step will be “the deployment in Cuba of a mobile complex for the reception of data from Russian satellites,” with the possibility of subsequently setting up a radar base at the abandoned Lourdes military base to monitor communications in Washington. Additionally, there may be plans for bases equipped with Iskander missiles after the U.S. deploys Aegis anti-missile systems in Romania, which could potentially revive the Kennedy-Khrushchev Missile Crisis of October 1962.

Risk of A Military Coup in Argentina

Argentina’s economy is teetering on the brink of stagflation (a combination of runaway inflation and economic recession), which poses significant risks. This combination distorts the market, and attempts at shock therapy to combat stagnation may inadvertently worsen inflation.

In an effort to boost consumption and escape recession, fiscal and monetary expansion strategies will be necessary, potentially leading to a cycle of secular stagnation. The collateral effects could include worsening poverty rates and increased social unrest. With 52% of the Argentine population already close to the poverty line, the combination of misery and hunger could trigger riots next fall, leading to the flight of Javier Milei from Argentina and possibly resulting in a military coup with U.S. support.

In conclusion, we are on the brink of a new wave of destabilization in Latin America’s geopolitical scene. The early signs are already visible and will continue to erupt over this decade, with Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada, and Panama exemplifying the so-called “virtual or postmodern coups” that the U.S. will orchestrate in the coming five years amid a return to economic protectionism and a reconfiguration of the global economy.

Democracy as Mob Rule

How Washington and Ankara Changed the Regime in Damascus

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by Thierry Meyssan via Voltairenet

With surprising aplomb, the international press assures us that we are not witnessing a military change of regime in Syria, but a revolution overthrowing the Syrian Arab Republic. The presence of the Turkish army and US special forces is hidden from us. We are bombarded with propaganda that has been denied several times about the crimes attributed to “Bashar”. Cannibal throat-cutters are transformed into respectable revolutionaries. Once again, the international press is consciously lying to us.

In 11 days, the Syrian Arab Republic, which had valiantly resisted attacks by jihadists supported by the largest coalition in history since 2011, was overthrown. So what happened?

First of all, since October 15, 2017, the United States has organized a siege of Syria, prohibiting all trade with it and prohibiting the United Nations from participating in its reconstruction [1]. This strategy was extended, in 2020, to Lebanon with the Caesar Act [2].

We, members of the European Union, have all participated in this crime. The majority of Syrians were malnourished. The pound had collapsed: what was worth 1 pound before the war, in 2011, was worth 50,000 when Damascus fell (the pound was revalued three days later thanks to an injection of Qatari money). The same causes always have the same effects, Syria was defeated like Iraq before it, when Secretary of State Madeleine Albright congratulated herself on having caused the death of half a million Iraqi children from disease and malnutrition.

On the other hand, if it was the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTC) who took Damascus, they were not the ones who won militarily. On November 27, HTC, armed by Qatar and supervised by the Turkish army disguised as the “Syrian National Army” (SNA), took control of the M4 highway which served as a ceasefire line. In addition, HTC and Türkiye had very high-performance drones operated by Ukrainian advisers. Finally, HTC took with it the Uighur colony of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) which had been entrenched in al-Zanbaki for 8 years [3]. The Israeli, Russian and Chinese theaters of operation have therefore merged.

Then, these forces attacked Aleppo, until then defended by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The latter withdrew without a word, leaving a small garrison of the Syrian Arab Army to defend the city. Faced with the disproportion of forces, the Syrian government ordered its troops to withdraw to Hama, which they did on November 29, after a brief battle.

On November 30, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad went to Russia. Not to attend the exam that his son Hafez was taking at Moscow University where he is continuing his studies, but to call for help. The Russian forces in Syria could only bomb the jihadists’ convoys because they are only airborne. They therefore tried to block the road to HTC and Turkey. They could not intervene on the ground against them. Aleppo was well and truly lost. Moreover, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, following his country’s tradition [4], has never acknowledged the loss of the Ottoman territories of Greece (Thessaloniki), the island of Cyprus, Syria (Aleppo) and Iraq (Mosul).

With dormant jihadist cells having been reactivated by Türkiye, the already exhausted Syrian Arab Army had to fight on all fronts at once. This is what General Maher el-Assad (the president’s brother) tried to do, in vain.

Ali Larijani, special envoy of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, went to Damascus to explain the withdrawal of the Revolutionary Guards from Aleppo and to set conditions for military aid from the Islamic Republic of Iran; astonishing cultural conditions for a secular state. In a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, President Bashar al-Assad said that the “terrorist escalation” was aimed at “trying to fragment the region, to crumble its states and to redraw the regional map in accordance with the interests and objectives of America and the West.” However, the official statement does not reflect the mood of the conversation. The Syrian president wanted to know who had ordered the Revolutionary Guards to abandon Aleppo. He did not get an answer. He then warned President Pezeshkian about the consequences for Iran of a fall of Syria. Nothing worked. Tehran continued to demand that it be given the keys to Syria to defend it.

On December 2, General Jasper Jeffers III, commander in chief of the United States Special Forces (UsSoCom), arrives in Beirut. Officially, he comes to monitor the implementation of the oral Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire. Given his functions, it is obvious that this will only be part of his mission. He will supervise the capture of Damascus by the Turks behind HTC.

On December 5, the United States relaunches at the United Nations Security Council their accusations against President Bashar al-Assad of using chemical weapons to repress his own people. They ignore the very many objections, testimonies and investigations that have shown that they are nothing more than war propaganda. Chemical weapons are the first argument of the gigantic Anglo-Saxon persuasion machine. They are what allowed the number 2 of the United Nations, Jeffrey Feltman, to prohibit the reconstruction of Syria. They were the ones who convinced Western public opinion that “Bashar is the executioner of Damascus” and blamed him for all the deaths in the war launched against his country.

Simultaneously, the Pentagon told HTC and the Turkish army that they could continue their advance, take Damascus and overthrow the Syrian Arab Republic.

On December 6 and 7, the Doha Forum was held in Qatar. Many Middle Eastern figures participated alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. On the sidelines of the Forum, a guarantee was given to Russia, which represented President al-Assad, that the soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army would not be pursued and that the military bases of the Russian Federation would not be attacked. Another guarantee was given to Iran that the Shiite shrines would not be destroyed, but it seems that Tehran was already convinced of this.

According to Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe Biden considered that the operation should end there. It was the Pentagon that decided, with the United Kingdom, to continue until the overthrow of the Syrian Arab Republic [5].

In New York, the Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2761 [6]. It authorizes disregarding sanctions against jihadists during “humanitarian operations”. The United Nations, which has never authorized relief for populations crushed under the yoke of Daesh, has suddenly authorized trade with HTC. This turnaround by the Security Council corresponds to the instructions of the United Nations advisor, Noah Bonsey, as he had already put forward in February 2021 when he worked for George Soros [7].

Abou Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTC, gives an interview to Jomana Karadsheh for CNN. She highlights it while the State Department’s Rewards for Justice website still offers $10 million for any information leading to the arrest of the jihadist leader [8]

On December 7, HTC and Türkiye take Saidnaya prison. This is a major issue for war propaganda that has nicknamed it “the human slaughterhouse.” It is claimed that thousands of people were tortured and executed there and that their bodies were burned in a crematorium. For three days, the White Helmets, an NGO that has both saved lives and participated in massacres, search the prison and its surroundings in search of secret underground passages, torture rooms and a crematorium. Alas! They find no evidence of the crimes denounced. Ultimately, journalist Clarissa Ward stages for CNN the release of a prisoner who has not seen the light of day for three months, but is clean, well-dressed and has well-groomed nails [9].

The accusations of torture and summary executions are all the more difficult to bear since Bashar al-Assad gave instructions in 2011 prohibiting all forms of torture and created a Ministry of National Reconciliation responsible for reintegrating Syrians who had joined the jihadists, and finally implemented general amnesties about forty times.

On December 8, President Bashar al-Assad ordered his men to lay down their arms. Damascus fell without a fight. The jihadists immediately unfurled pre-printed banners and affixed the symbol of the new regime to their uniforms. Former Al-Qaeda fighter and then Daesh number 2, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, real name Ahmad el-Chara, seizes power. Surrounded by British communications advisers, he gives a speech at the Great Umayyad Mosque, modeled on that of the Daesh caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, at the Great Al-Nouri Mosque in Mosul in 2019.

HTC now treats Christians as mustamin (Islamic classification for non-Muslim foreigners who reside on a limited basis in Muslim territory), sparing them the dhimmi pact (a series of rights and duties reserved for non-Muslims) and the payment of the jiziya tax. In September 2022, for the first time in a decade, a ceremony in honor of Saint Anne was held in the Armenian church of al-Yacoubiyah, in the countryside of Jisr al-Shugur, west of Idlib.

3,000 soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army go into exile in Iraq. They are disarmed and housed in tents at the Al-Qaim border crossing, then transferred to a military base in Rutba. Baghdad announces that it is trying to obtain guarantees so that they can return home [10].

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launch an operation to destroy the equipment and fortifications of the Syrian Arab Army. In four days, 480 bombings sink the fleet and set fire to armories and warehouses. Simultaneously, ground teams assassinate the country’s leading scientists.

After showing journalists around the empty Syrian fortifications along the coast, Benny Kata, a local military commander, tells his guests: “It is clear that we will stay here for a while. We are prepared for it.”

The IDF is already invading Syria a little more, beyond the Golan ceasefire line that it occupies. It announces that it will create a new buffer zone on Syrian territory, to protect the current buffer zone, in short to annex it. In addition, they annexed Mount Hermon so that they could monitor the entire region.

On December 9, General Michael Kurilla, commander-in-chief of the US forces in the broader Middle East (CentCom), traveled to Amman to meet with General Yousef Al-H’naity, chairman of the Jordanian Joint Chiefs of Staff. He reaffirmed the US commitment to support Jordan if threats emanated from Syria during the current transition period.

On December 10, General Michael Kurilla visited his troops and those of the Syrian Democratic Forces (Kurdish mercenaries) in several bases in Syria. He developed a plan to ensure that Daesh would not leave the area assigned to it by the Pentagon and would not interfere in the regime change in Damascus. Immediately, intense bombardments prevented Daesh from approaching.

HTC appoints Mohammed al-Bashir, former jihadist “governor” of Idlib, as Prime Minister of the new regime. He is a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, sponsored by the British MI6. France, which had negotiated with its special envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the appointment of Riad Hijab (former secretary of the Council of Ministers in 2012), realizes that it has been cheated.

That same evening, there is no longer any question of making Jean-Yves Le Drian Prime Minister in France. On the contrary, the Élysée invites the anti-terrorism prosecutor of Paris to the France2 news. He puts an end to the acclamations of the new power in Damascus and deplores that HTC is involved in the assassination of the French professor Samuel Patty (2020) and in the massacre in Nice (86 dead, in 2016). The French press then changed its tune and began to question the new power that the international press continued to present as respectable.

On December 11, the main Palestinian factions present in Syria (Palestine Liberation Front, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Islamic Jihad Movement, Palestinian Popular Struggle Front, General Command) met in Yarmouk (Damascus) in the presence of delegates from HTC (Military Operations Department). Fatah and Hamas did not participate in the meeting. They were asked to make peace with their Israeli ally. It was decided that no faction would have a privileged status and that all would be treated identically. Each group agreed to lay down their arms.

General Michael Kurilla traveled successively to Lebanon and Israel for three days. In Beirut, he met with General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese armed forces, and especially his colleague, US General Jasper Jeffers III. In Tel Aviv, he met with the entire Israeli Joint Chiefs of Staff and Defense Minister Israel Katz. On this occasion, he said: “My visit to Israel, as well as to Jordan, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon over the past six days, has underscored the importance of seeing today’s challenges and opportunities through the eyes of our partners, our commanders on the ground and our service members. We must maintain strong partnerships to confront current and future threats to the region.”

On December 12, Ibrahim Kalin, director of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı – MIT), is the first foreign high-ranking official to visit the new government in Damascus. On the same day, the Kurdish mercenaries, who administer northeastern Syria for the US occupation army, raise the country’s new green, white and black three-star flag, that of the French mandate. Kalin will be followed on December 15 by a Qatari delegation.

To validate the accusations of torture attributed to the former regime, Clarissa Ward, who is definitely in great shape, stages for CNN corpses found in the morgue of a hospital in Damascus, as the same CNN had staged those in a morgue in Timișoara, during the overthrow of the Ceaușescu, in 1989 [11].

Meanwhile, according to the United Nations, more than a million Syrians are trying to flee their country. They do not believe that the HTC jihadists have suddenly become civilized.


The author of this article, Thierry Meyssan, was an advisor to the Libyan and then Syrian authorities for nine years. From this experience, he produced a fundamental work on Western policy in the Middle East: Before Our Very Eyes, Fake Wars and Big Lies: From 9/11 to Donald Trump.

Translation
Roger Lagassé

[1] “Parameters and Principles of UN assistance in Syria”, by Jeffrey D. Feltman, Voltaire Network, 15 October 2017.

[2] “Hassan Nasrallah says US wants to cause famine in Lebanon”, Voltaire Network, 17 June 2020.

[3] “The 18,000 al-Qaeda Uyghurs in Syria”, Translation Roger Lagassé, Voltaire Network, 21 August 2018. «Uyghur fighters in Syria vow to come for China next», Sophia Yan, The Telegraph, Decembrer 13, 2024.

[4] « Serment national turc », Réseau Voltaire, 28 janvier 1920.

[5] «Fidan: Nous avons négocié avec la Russie et l’Iran pour qu’en Syrie, ça se passe sans effusion de sang», Anadolu Agency, 13 décembre 2024. «“Israël ne voulait pas qu’Assad tombe”, affirme le chef de la diplomatie turque», I24 News, 16 décembre 2024.

[6] « Résolution portant exemption des sanctions contre les jihadistes », Réseau Voltaire, 6 décembre 2024.

[7] «In Syria’s Idlib, Washington’s Chance to Reimagine Counter-terrorism», New Crisis Group, Noah Bonsey & Dareen Khalifa, February 2021.

[8] «Muhammad al-Jawlani», Rewards for Justice, site consulté le 14 décembre 2024.

[9] «‘Are you serious?’: He spent months in a Syrian prison. CNN’s camera caught the moment he’s freed, Clarissa Ward, CNN, December 11, 2024.

[10] «خاص»
محمد عماد, 11 ديسمبر

[11] «Battered corpses show the horrors of life and death under Syria’s Assad», CNN December 12, 2024.

Military Affairs

The Syria They Didn’t Tell us About

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Ed. Note: This is a must-read article and especially the conclusion, regarding our future. With the fall of Syria, I came to the same conclusion myself. Russia is now targeted, and it is being surrounded. From the South, with the penetration of the Jihadists and the soon-to-be-implemented blocking of the straits to the Mediterranean Sea; from the West, by the blocking of Ukraine and then of the Baltic Sea; and even in the North through the brewing takeover of Greenland and the submarine routes to the Atlantic. The aim here is to suffocate Russia. Will this situation ultimately trigger the much-feared nuclear war, or Russia’s capitulation? Only time will tell.

This is the testimony of a Syrian who fought for his country and his people and who now suffers the most terrible defeat in life.

by

Lorenzo Maria Pacini via Strategic-Culture

This article stems from a conversation I had with an old friend who was a commander of the Syrian Armed Forces, whose courage was appreciated and recognised throughout the Middle East. A true socialist from another era, who was never afraid to speak his mind and who, despite contradictions and different political views, never betrayed his country and support for his government.

As he has no pleasure in revealing his name, as he is still engaged in institutional activities abroad, we will call him by his fictional name Ram. Whether one agrees with his words or not, this is the testimony of a Syrian who fought for his country and his people and who now suffers the most terrible defeat in life.

The reunion with Ram

In Ram’s private study there is an air of life lived to the full. Hanging on the walls are various paintings of Syrian landscapes, along with some Koranic invocations and terracottas commemorating the battles he took part in. A few old books in Arabic can be glimpsed on the bookshelf, along with many posters of documents in various languages. Here and there are now faded photographs of men in camouflage uniforms in the desert. Looking towards the entrance, a Syrian flag with Bashar al-Assad’s face still full of dust, dirt and a few rips, as if it had been taken from the battlefield and immediately put on the flagpole. In the centre, a photo of his father, a wise and good-looking Arab man, with a black mourning keffiyeh on top.

We had known each other for years: I was a kid who read the classics of geopolitics and looked at the world with the desire to understand it, he was a fighter who had lived through incredible situations and retired to private life, continuing to work for his country in other ways, out of the spotlight. I loved listening to the anecdotes he would pull out of his memory each time, it was like plunging into a different world, almost improbable for how ‘other’ it was from the West. Above all, a world in which the war, the struggle for freedom and a different political situation were not something decades away, but fresh events whose scars were still open and bleeding.

He has always had great respect for me and my support for the Syrian cause, which is why he allowed me to meet him. He welcomes me with the warmth, respect and depth that belongs to the Syrian people, famous for thousands of years for their ability to welcome and integrate. He offers me a long coffee and we start talking.

‘Ram, what do you think?’ I ask him.

The happiness of our meeting suddenly disappears. His face becomes serious and his head tilts forward as if in deep thought. After a few seconds, he looks up: ‘I have never told anyone. Perhaps the time has come to tell what I knew, what I saw’.

What follows is his testimony, delivered to me with great emotion and palpable pain from the first to the last word.

We already knew everything

‘What happened was not expected by anyone, except those who, like me, had already glimpsed the plot of events as far back as 2011 and perhaps had had anticipations from trusted contacts. We already knew everything. We knew that Bashar al-Assad was preparing something with the rulers of other countries, arranging his good exit the moment support in the Middle East collapsed or things went bad’. The seriousness of the conversation does not admit of irony or sarcasm. Ram is serious and tries to make me understand the gravity of his words, trusting in my professionalism and the trust that binds us.

The thesis he supports and which he explains to me in many details, some of which I cannot report due to the delicacy of the information cited, is that Bashar al-Assad was too friendly with Westerners: his banker wife, the dinners in the United Kingdom, the smell of Freemasonry, a certain passivity in the face of the corruption of politicians and the high ranks of the armed forces. Too many elements that many Syrians did not like and that already in 2000, when he came to power, had aroused suspicion and disappointment among those who, like Ram, had risked their lives for the revolution.

The events of 2011-2013, the internal uprising, the jihadist terrorism, had all been consequences of previous mistakes. Assad had winked too much at the West…but also at the East. To Russia, for example. ‘I confess I had believed it, I had hoped for it. Putin could really make a difference. I never trusted any other ruler, but I did, because he had really provided essential help in defeating terrorism and had guaranteed Syria at least a minimum of international security,’ he tells me, exploring his many memories. ‘But it didn’t help, because Russia was also involved in the agreement. We have been betrayed twice: as a country, by Russia who let the enemy assault us; as Syrian people, by our president who sold out all of us to save his own skin’. There is anger in Ram’s eyes. A solemn anger that admits of no lies.

‘And I will tell you more: for me, the agreement was signed in concert with Israel and the US. American Jews are interested in the Middle East to realize the Greater Israel project and the construction of the Third Temple, Russian Jews are interested in Ukraine, the old Khazaria. They win either way. Israel won even before sending troops to invade’. Strong and precise words, as befits a commander who has been at war for real.

He then explained to me that information had already been circulating for a couple of months about Assad’s escape and the handover of Syria without effort, but these were not rumors that were given much credence and the versions of events were sometimes contradictory and inaccurate. But it was clear that something was moving.

He tells me some anecdotes of when he was fighting, of the cities he defended and when he also took part in conflicts in other countries: ‘I have seen in my life the enemy arrive in Beirut, in Damascus, in Aleppo, in Hama, in Homs. I have seen the enemy succeed in making us believe they have won, but then be swept away by the courage of our men. There were times when I thought it was the end, that we were losing the war, but then something happened that gave new impetus to the Resistance. This time – the first time in my whole life – I saw defeat’.

This is the most painful point. ‘We did not lose, we were defeated. This is much worse. ‘Woe to the vanquished!’ said the Latins.’ Defeat is the most terrible thing for a long-standing commander. The Syrian people have always shown heroic resistance, but something went wrong somewhere.

‘Do you know what I saw over there the last time I went? Poverty, hunger. There is no electricity, no water, no food supplies, not even fuel. The army is left to fend for itself in absolutely precarious conditions’. He tells me that some 700,000,000 [sic] young Syrians have given their lives to fight against the enemy.

Blood, blood, blood. Is it possible that the Middle East has to be constantly bathed in blood?

Then he explains to me the corruption he has seen, from checkpoints where the military took bribes without checking up on them to high officials bought with the luxury of private cars, villas, Western souvenirs.

‘Once when I was driving out of Damascus towards Homs, I met two very young boys in uniform along the road. They were thin and were smoking. I stopped them and asked them what they were doing there in that condition. They replied that they had no money to go to Homs, to spend the 24 hours of leave they had, nor did they have money to eat. I loaded them into the car with me and we left. During the journey we talked, they told me about the misery they lived in at the base. Their daily ration of food was a tomato and a potato. Once a week they were given a chicken to share among eight people. In my time there was food and the troops had to be well fed to be ready to fight. How can this happen? In the last 13 years, the government has completely destroyed the army: corruption of officers, lack of supplies, disengagement in the fight for the national cause’.

Soleimani, Raisi, Nasrallah. Someone betrayed

‘When General Soleimani – whom I knew as a young soldier – was killed by the American demon in 2020, I immediately sensed that something was starting to go wrong. He was much more than a General, he was a real Man, a leader, a living example. After him, unfortunately, the Resistance did not have another soldier capable in the same way of coordinating thousands of men from different countries, religions and ethnicities. This was an enormous strategic disadvantage’. We briefly reviewed the history of the Axis of Resistance and reasoned together about the geopolitical implications for the entire Middle East.

‘When I heard about Raisi’s death, I didn’t want to believe it. It seemed impossible. From that moment on, everything went downhill. Every day I watched the news with the fear that something even more terrible might happen. And so it was: one after the other, they took out all the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas’. A tragic truth, which I could only confirm.

The speed with which the enemy exterminated the military leaders of the Lebanese resistance one after the other was unbelievable, proving that agencies like the CIA, MI6 and Mossad did a great job. This is an incontrovertible fact. In the space of a few months, the entire political geography of the Middle East underwent a mutation that had not succeeded in years of trying.

‘Who knew the coordinates of Nasrallah’s bunker? Maybe three people in the world: Khamenei, Soleimani, Assad. Khamenei rather than betray would be ready to die with rifle in hand. Soleimani has already been taken out. There is only one left…’. At these words I stand open-mouthed: the commander had never spoken ill of his president, although I knew that politically he was not a supporter of him in everything, but had always supported his leader’s battle, for the good of the whole country. Anger, disappointment and pain brought out the truest words. A gamble, but still true.

Because one of the big questions that remain open is ‘who’ revealed Nasrallah’s exact location: an intelligence tracker? A spy? A paid-for piece of information? Or a traitor? The fact is that Nasrallah is no more and this, in Ram’s words, means that Lebanon will be the next to fall and Palestine, consequently, will no longer exist except in the memories of the last Arabs scattered around the world.

‘Syria fell in a matter of days because it had already fallen to the will of its rulers who had sold it out. 70,000 soldiers migrated within hours, taken in taxis (which cost a lot of money), not military vehicles, to the border with Iraq. It was all planned. Not a single bullet was fired in this invasion. This is not the Syrian army I know. This ‘thing’ is a perversion without dignity’.

He points to a photo behind him; I catch a glimpse of a soldier in uniform, one of those postcard photos you send to your parents when you do your military service: ‘Look at that boy there, 22 years old. Slit his throat’. He froze for a few moments, his eyes swollen with tears. It was the son of a close friend of his.

What will happen now?

Ram does not feel like talking about the coming days or weeks or months. Arab and secular Syria no longer exists. The word of the defeated has little value.

‘Something unthinkable is happening these days. There is no information in the media about it because it would be something terribly raw. Imagine 70 years of ethnic, cultural and religious hatred: they are getting even.’ There is almost fear in uttering these words. I remember that he has a brother in the Islamic clergy and several nieces and nephews, and with some concern I ask him what about them, so he replies: ‘I am trying to get my relatives out of Syria, but since 8 December I cannot even get in touch with them.’ A tragedy that is the common sentence of too many thousands of people in those lands.

In concluding our conversation, which lasted about an hour, Ram ventures an almost ‘prophetic’ projection: ‘I say it: yesterday Palestine, today Syria. Tomorrow Lebanon for good. Then Yemen. Once Yemen and Lebanon have fallen, Iran will be next. In between there is nothing left; Iraq is a gas pump surrounded by American gunmen, it will fall soon. President Trump is ready to destroy Iran, the intelligence community already knows this. If Khamenei dies, Iran collapses’. A few seconds of silence. Khamenei is the last remaining ‘global’ Islamic authority and the last patron of the Resistance.

‘Then it will be Russia’s turn. Millions of Sunni Islamic immigrants in the odor of extremism are already on the streets of Russian cities. They let in indiscriminately, they will pay the consequences. Then it will be Rome’s turn. Then Beijing’s. I await the day when the ‘long beards’ will come marching into Red Square and St. Peter’s Square. I hope to die before that terrible day’.

Here ends our conversation. A deep silence that lasts a few minutes. We stand up to say goodbye. Sighing, I take my formal leave and look one last time at the relics of the patriotic war Ram fought. I try to ask myself if I too would be ready to give my life as so many heroes and martyrs did who are no longer here today, but whose example will remain forever.

Military Affairs

Strelkov’s Interview

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Interview with Igor Strelkov in the Russian penal colony (machine translated)

December 25, 2024 by (interview with the media resource URA.ru, which was never published by them).

First of all, how is your health, how do you feel? Do you need anything, do you have enough of everything?

I.S.: My health leaves much to be desired, but I hope for the best. I need what most prisoners need, if not all.

How is your life arranged now? What do you do most of the time, what job did you choose? How are your relationships with other prisoners? Those who live with you – are they serving sentences for what articles? How are your relations with the colony administration?
I.S.: Those who have not been in prison will not understand. I am in the zone 24 hours a day, you can choose a job outside, and in prison I am employed as a handyman in a sewing shop (chalkboard worker) and in my free time from this noble occupation I am learning the profession of an electrician. Relations in the team are quite smooth, there are no conflicts, I maintain friendly relations with many, there are no people in the colony convicted of serious articles, but, unfortunately, many are serving time under Article 337 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. I try to follow the regime, not to violate the PVR, I do not feel any nitpicking.

Are there any of your supporters among other convicts in the colony?
I.S.: In the colony, so to speak, “on both sides of the barricade” there are people who read my blog, however, since I am not involved in political activities, I did not find out who of them is my supporter.

How do you maintain contact with the outside world? Where do you get news? Do they write you letters, who writes them?
I.S.: Many people write to me using the Zonatelecom service, I receive information for analysis from my correspondents and relatives.

What exactly is stopping you from going to the front now? Many people leave places of detention during the investigation stage, what is your reason?
Will you challenge your sentence further?
I.S.: I will challenge the court’s sentence for the rest of my life.
Do you think you will be able to be released early?

Do you think a Russian penal colony can reform a convicted person?
I.S.: It can form in many people an acute reluctance to end up there again, whether this is a reform is a controversial and rather philosophical question.

What do you dream about? How do you hold on, what really helps in the colony?
I.S.: Dreaminess and pathos are not my style, there have been worse periods in my life, and the work was harder, and the responsibility was higher, it was easier for me morally when I led large teams at war.

Since the beginning of August, part of the Kursk region has been occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, thousands of residents of Sudzha are still searching for their missing relatives. How soon, in your opinion, will the Russian army be able to liberate the Kursk territories?
I.S.: I cannot speculate on the fate of the Kursk region, there is not enough information, the main question is different – how soon will our army completely defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I emphasize, completely, a partial defeat is not enough.

In November, Donald Trump won the presidential election in the United States. How do you think his new term in office will change the situation in the world? Is it possible to improve relations with Russia? Trump promised that he would end the war on the first day of his presidency – do you think his return to power will change the course of the SVO?
I.S.: I have no illusions about Trump, I believe that he will put forward such conditions for a truce that they will be unacceptable even for the most ardent supporters of the “freeze”. And besides, we greatly underestimate the degree of stubbornness of Nezalezhnaya. I will refer to V.O. Klyuchevsky: “A Russian is a smart person who pretends to be a fool, and a Ukrainian is a fool who pretends to be smart.”

On November 21, Vladimir Putin addressed the Russians. He said that in response to the use of long-range missiles (ATACMS, Storm Shadow and HIMARS) in the Kursk and Bryansk regions, the Russian army launched a retaliatory strike with a new ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead. The missile is called “Oreshnik”. The strike hit the Yuzhmash enterprise in Dnepropetrovsk. According to Putin, the new Russian medium-range missile attacks targets at a speed of 10 Mach (2.5-3 kilometers per second), and there is currently no countermeasure to such weapons. In addition, “Oreshnik” can hit targets in Europe. How do you see the course of development of the SVO after Russia’s use of “Oreshnik”?
I.S.: About “Oreshnik” – wars are not won by missile strikes, so I do not expect any consequences from its use, with the exception of those described in the old Soviet cartoon called “Plasticine Crow”.

Is it possible that Russia and Ukraine will start negotiations or will the escalation escalate?
I. S. The question is not addressed to the right person, not within the framework of the SVO, and I cannot know what the SVO will ultimately develop into and I will not “read the tea leaves”, it is possible and necessary to fear a nuclear war.

How long, in your opinion, will the SVO last?
I.S.: The SVO ended a long time ago in the spring of 2022 and has developed into a full-fledged war not for life but to the death, in which one of the parties will win. Victory must be ours, otherwise Russia will perish.

Many fighters and supporters of the Wagner PMC believe that Yevgeny Prigozhin is alive. What do you think about this?
I.S.: I believe that Prigozhin is dead.

In early December, the Bashar al-Assad regime fell in Syria, and power in the country passed into the hands of Islamist groups. The cities that were the subject of fierce battles with the support of Russian troops and the Wagner PMC are now lost, and Assad has received asylum in Moscow. What do you think about this? What does the loss of control in Syria mean for Russia?
I.S.: The Syrian story is a reincarnation of the fire in the stable from Utesov’s miniature entitled “Everything is fine, beautiful marquise…”. First of all, we should not have refused to liberate Novorossiya in 2014. Now we can only hope that we will be able to find a way to minimize the consequences of Assad’s flight, and I am afraid that we will not be able to save the base in Tartus.

Igor Ivanovich, how do you think the events that happened to you have influenced you? Have you developed any new thoughts, ideas? Or, on the contrary, have you become even more convinced of your commitment to your views?
I.S.: I have remained myself regardless of external conditions.

What would you like to convey to the Russians, to your supporters? Would you like to address something? What is your attitude to the possible truce that is now being talked about from every iron?
I.S.: Firstly, I persist in my forecast – most likely there will be no truce, and if there is, it will be very short-lived and soon a new “turmoil” will begin… Now our dear “Western partners” have not yet decided on the main thing – does “Ukraine” need a break or can they continue to cynically “grind down” the Slavs against each other without regard for their “shrinkage and shrinkage”. In any case, the authorities in Kyiv are not going to observe or implement anything that has been signed, we have already seen all this in the story with the Minsk agreements.
Secondly, there is no benefit for Russia in the “freeze”. From a military point of view, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are close to a crisis. Giving them a break now is a crime. They will recover with Western help, “preen their feathers” and go back to battle, and the “trigger” will be a new series of provocations.
For our country, a truce not only means a short-term reduction in combat potential, but, most importantly, celebrating the imaginary “victory” with propaganda will be extremely dangerous and corrupting. Moreover, an influential group of traitors remains in the highest echelons of power, who are deliberately leading the cause to the defeat of Russia. They continue to live by the motto “let’s drink Bavarian wine” and dream of the physical extermination of patriots. No matter how hard it is, we need to maintain a strategic course for the total defeat of Ukraine, the mirage of a “freeze” leads to a catastrophe. Believe me, I do not enjoy the fact that many of my predictions are coming true. I am not a “doomsayer” or a “whiner”, I just feel sick watching how some people’s “mustache has come unglued” time after time again.
By the way, during my last visit, the lawyer told me about a Karelian punk band with the strange name “Gromyka”. So, they have a hit that consists entirely of one phrase: “I told you, you didn’t listen, and that’s how it turned out” (https://youtu.be/3Szc_pOz9fw?si=QRD8oH3hoUjliCwF). It’s both funny and sad.

Last question. Do you think Strelkov is still remembered or is he a “shot down pilot”?
I.S.: In connection with your last question, I remembered an old joke – a clown is sitting in a park near the circus and drinking. A drinking buddy comes up to him and asks why he is not going to the party in honor of the circus’s 107th anniversary.
– They didn’t invite him…
– Forgot?
– They remember!

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Uncategorized

The War is Escalating

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The sinking of the Russian ship Ursa Major, the gunning of the Embraer passenger plane, the missiles hitting high rises in Kazan, the assassination of General Kirillov, etc. – the hybrid war, which is now the terror war against Russia, is picking up speed.

This is the West’s real plan, and the Trump phenomenon is only a diversion to cover up for the long grinding war of attrition against Russia that has now turned into the new daily new reality. This is how Russia is being gradually turned into Lebanon. This is how Moscow is being gradually turned into Beirut.

Will Russia manage to survive this type of relentless attack? It’s anyone’s guess.

While Russia might not be militarily defeated on its own home turf, it is no longer clear that it can survive an all-out full spectrum hybrid war. Most likely it will not. The new global techno web is far reaching and Russia’s vast territory is no longer a place to hide.

Military Affairs

Oreshnik? What Oreshnik?! Fake news?

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Oreshnik – the super weapon from Russia? November 21, 2024, the day that made history, when Russian won the war?

As it turns out there is no such evidence. The famous military plant Yuzhmash, in Ukraine, was not pulverized as Doctorow and others have posted, nor was it deeply penetrated, or whatever – wiped out – no. None of that is borne out by the evidence. Apparently it wasn’t even targeted. There is no evidence of an impact at all, except in the virtual sphere of reality.

There is some evidence of peripheral damage to the roofs of some buildings, but even those have now been documented as having been caused by an earlier attack by the Russians, in July, with conventional weapons.

Quote:

As I said in the beginning of this article, there are three possible explanations:

– Oreshnik completely missed Yuzhmash

– Oreshnik hit the plant, but did no damage which is visible in the satellite imagery I ordered

– Just like Maxar, Airbus is participating in a coverup of damage to Ukrainian military objects

See the full article here : Mea Maxima Culpa and an earlier article: Yuzhmash and Oreshnik Demystified

Cultural/Ideological Divide

Would A Trump-Putin Agreement Bring Peace To Ukraine Or Just Set The Stage For More War?

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Authored by Jim Jatras via The Ron Paul Institute

“I have not become the King’s First Minister in order to preside over the liquidation of the British Empire.” – Winston Churchill, 1942

Many Americans, even a lot who never much cared for Donald Trump, voted for him in part because they believed – or at least hoped – that he would be, relatively speaking, a peace candidate compared to the hideous Biden-Harris record. To his credit, Trump’s first term was the only US presidency since Jimmy Carter’s not to get us embroiled in a new conflict, though he failed to extricate us from Afghanistan or Syria.

Such hopes need to be balanced against other aspects of Trump’s earlier tenure in office. Notably, on Ukraine, he oversaw provision of lethal aid to Kiev that had been denied by Barack Obama. Put another way, it was under Trump that Ukraine built up a NATO army in all but name, setting the stage for the February 2022 escalation of the conflict that had been brewing since the 2014 coup midwifed by Victoria Nuland.

Trump has said he would end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours, indeed, even before he takes office. While never unveiling anything resembling an actual plan, he has indicated that his “art of the deal” trademark bluster and threats would be applied to both Ukraine (terminate all aid if Kiev refuses to negotiate!) and Russia (vastly increase aid to Ukraine if Moscow refuses to negotiate!). The supposedly “transactional” President-elect is seemingly unflustered by little details like how, if both Russia and Ukraine balk at talks, he could simultaneously increase and cut off US assistance. Five-dimensional chess indeed!

While the thought of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence is balm for every peace-loving soul, the rest of Trump’s announced second-term team is anything but reassuring: Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Michael Waltz as National Security Adviser, with supporting roles at the NSC by Sebastian Gorka and special envoy for Ukraine-Russia Keith Kellogg, all of whom have a record of the standard bellicose chest-thumping with respect to evil, evil Russia and our cuddly “democratic” “ally” Ukraine.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, one thing should always be kept in mind: like Winston Churchill with respect to the British Empire, Donald Trump has not returned to the Oval Office in order to preside over the liquidation of the Global American Empire (the GAE). Rather, all indications are that he seeks to disengage the US from the Ukraine conflict in a way that avoids total, humiliating defeat for NATO (and, probably, that organization’s long-overdue dissolution) in order to “pivot” to the Middle East and a looming war with Iran following a return to his “maximum pressure” policy. The encore will be the Really, Really Big Showdown with China. Hence Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.

What of the other side? Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and other top Kremlin and Duma figures have made it clear that Moscow has had enough with “non-agreement capable” Washington after repeated Western deceptions: on NATO expansion (“not one inch eastward”), the status of Kosovo (UN Security Council Resolution 1244 providing for its autonomy within Serbia, trashed by the US-sponsored unilateral declaration of independence in 2008), the February 2014 power-sharing agreement in Ukraine between then-President Viktor Yanukovich and his opposition (a dead letter before even one night had passed), the February 2015 Minsk 2 agreement on the status of the Donbass that was unanimously endorsed by the UN Security Council (but later admitted by Angela Merkel and other western leaders to have been a ruse to allow time to build up Kiev’s forces for a Blitzkrieg), and the failed April 2022 Ukraine-Russia agreement initialed at Istanbul (torpedoed by Boris Johnson with US backing).

Accordingly, the Russians have made it clear that they will accept no temporary truces, no ceasefires, no more promises made to be broken like piecrusts, no pauses as cynical tricks to get the Russians to forgo their current and growing military advantage. (Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, even suggested recently that new regions could soon be added to Russia. Putin recently re-floated the concept of Novorossiya, “New Russia,” a region of Imperial Russia that included Odessa.) No, they insist, there must be either a genuine, definitive, binding settlement that ensures a lasting peace based on mutual security, or Russian forces will press on until their objectives – notably “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine – are achieved militarily. Such an outcome would mean at least replacement of the current regime in Kiev and, more likely, the end of Ukraine’s statehood.

For the West, this would constitute a total debacle of Afghanistan-like proportions effectively signaling the end of US hegemony in Europe, the GAE’s crown jewel. What can Trump offer the Russians to avoid that?

Moscow’s latest peace proposal was voiced by Putin in June 2024, in which he specified that he’s willing to negotiate at any time but will not halt military operations until Kiev withdraws its forces from the four oblasts that, in addition to Crimea, Moscow claims to be part of Russia: Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson, Notably, this would include the cities of Zaporozhye and Kherson, under Kiev’s control as of this writing. (In fact, contrary to propaganda from the usual suspects, Putin has never rejected talks, unlike Ukrainian former-president-but-still-playing-the-role Vladimir Zelensky, who in October 2022 issued a decree forbidding talks with Russia as long as Putin is in office.)

Putin’s June proposal was dismissed out of hand by Kiev and its western backers. Given Moscow’s rejection of a ceasefire at the conflict’s line of control, things are at a seeming impasse.

But are they?

With the rapid and accelerating advance of Russian forces, the physical distinction between the military line of confrontation (a freeze line rejected by Moscow) and the constitutional limits of the four oblasts (evacuation of which Moscow demands) becomes less every day. That is, the territorial question – which Russia has never stated to be paramount in its goals for launching its “Special Military Operation” (SMO) in the first place – becomes less of an issue.

Rather, the real question for the Trump Administration becomes a political one of how much wiggle room there is in the Russians’ stated determination not to rely on more promises of the sort that have been repeatedly broken in the past. Put another way: if Trump-Lucy wants to avoid utter defeat in the European theater of the worldwide confrontation between the GAE and BRICS-Eurasia, so he can get on to mixing it up with Iran and China, can he dupe Putin-Charlie Brown into taking another run at the football?

I think he at least has a good shot at it. Keep in mind that, despite the ubiquitous narrative, Putin is neither a dictator nor a hardliner toward the West. Regarding the former, he’s a balancer in a system that still retains many (too damn many, in my opinion) western liberals dying to see the day they can again send their snotty kids back to elite western universities and their fat wives and svelte mistresses shopping at Harrods, while saluting a rainbow flag raised over Lenin’s Mausoleum. As to the latter, as lately demonstrated by his restrained response to ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles launched into pre-1991 Russia by NATO personnel from Ukrainian territory, Putin has shown a dogged determination to come to an understanding with his Western “partners” long after it became clear to everyone (except him, evidently) that they have no intention of ever getting along with him or Russia but are hell-bent on destroying both. (“Hello, Volodya? It’s me, Bashar. I’m out front of Resurrection Gate, near Zhukov’s statue …)

Far from the “shock and awe” demonstrated by the United States in Serbia, Iraq, Libya, etc., or Netanyahu’s in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, Putin’s light military footprint in Ukraine – the limited size of the incursion force, declining to destroy the Dnepr bridges, limited (but now increasing) attacks on infrastructure, the pullback of Russian forces from Kiev as a good will gesture before the 2022 Istanbul talks, not eliminating Kiev regime leaders who’d kill him if they could – all point to a strategy based on accepting a reasonable deal if one might be presented, not on settling things by force of arms, 1945-style. (It’s largely forgotten now that at the outset of the conflict foreign embassies decamped from Kiev and moved to Lvov in the far west, and consideration was even given for the Zelensky regime to abandon Ukraine entirely and establish a government in exile, in the expectation that Russia would quickly overrun the whole country – then face an Afghan-type insurgency that would bleed Russia white, leading to regime-change in Moscow.) Unexpectedly, the Russians didn’t behave as the West had anticipated. Instead, it’s clear their approach was “pedagogical” from the start: show the West they mean business so they’ll come to the table. It is also suggested that a deal, not a military resolution, would be preferable to Putin’s BRICS partners, whose opinion he can’t afford to ignore.

The frustration this approach has caused in the Russian military and in large sectors of the public is well known. That said, as observed by Moscow-based John Helmer, Putin may deem that his high levels of public support allow him to accept a settlement that falls short of, or at least redefines, his SMO goals as originally stated. It’s an open question whether that support could be sustained when (inevitably, in my opinion) the West contemptuously disregards its obligations under whatever is agreed-to.

Some say Putin has finally learned his lesson about the West. Others say not, that he would jump at any remotely reasonable transaction proffered by Trump & Co., Inc. We will soon see.

Looking at the longstanding pattern of Putin’s Kremlin and the smoke signals from Washington, mediated by the good offices of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the contours of a kind of Minsk 3 or Istanbul-double-plus-good “deal” are already discernable:

1. A ceasefire in early 2025: Ukrainian forces would evacuate whatever shrinking part, if any, of the four oblasts they might still hold, plus of Russia’s Kursk region if any Ukrainians are still there. A Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) would be established. (Some ad hoc arrangement might have to be reached on the cities of Zaporozhye and Kherson, if the Russians hadn’t taken them yet. Perhaps they would remain under Ukrainian administration inside the DMZ, “claimed by Russia.”)

2. Moscow would continue to regard the areas it holds as sovereign Russian territory. The rest of the world would still deem them Ukrainian under temporary Russian occupation, similar to how the US regarded the Baltic Republics of the USSR. Both sides would tolerate a rough balance between Zaporozhye and Kherson cities (claimed by Russia but under Ukrainian administration) and the rest of the oblasts and Crimea (claimed by Ukraine but under Russian administration).

3. As Trump has suggested, supposedly non-NATO European Union peacekeepers would be deployed on the Ukrainian side of the DMZ (with Moscow’s agreement, contrary to astute observers’ insistence that the Russians would never allow it), subject to strict limits on numbers, weaponry, etc. These limits, of course, would not be honored (see Lucy and Charlie Brown, above).

4. NATO membership for Ukraine world be deferred indefinitely. This is an obvious Lucy lie that Moscow would pretend means permanent neutrality. In fact, rump Ukraine would be treated as a NATO state in all but name but not receive formal membership.

5. Security guarantees: the US, NATO, Russia would sign an updated version of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (possibly in the form of a treaty, which the original Budapest Memorandum wasn’t) enshrined in a Security Council Resolution, guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity (taking into account “provisional arrangements”), its neutral status, and a bar of foreign troops on Ukraine’s territory (except those permitted in this agreement); parallel provisions would be put into the Ukrainian constitution. It goes without saying that these Lucy assurances would not be honored by the West any more than were past formal commitments on Kosovo, the Donbass, and other topics.

6. Demilitarization “guarantees”: Strict limits would be placed on the size and composition of Ukraine’s military and placement of foreign forces and weapons on its territory. More Lucy lies.

7. Denazification “guarantees”: Parties and movements with specified “extremist” ideologies would be legally banned. More Lucy lies. Elections would be held in rump Ukraine. All sides would pretend the resulting regime is democratic, legitimate, and “moderate.” Banderist neo-Nazi groups, formally illegal, would retain their guns and wield a permanent veto over any Kiev regime.

8. Kiev would commit to protections for the Russian language and Russian culture, the canonical Orthodox Church, etc. More Lucy lies.

9. The West would promise a phased lifting of sanctions and the return of frozen/confiscated Russian assets. “You can trust me this time, Charlie Brown!” Consider how long it took Russia to be removed from 1974 Jackson-Vanik sanctions only to then be immediately slapped with new Magnitsky Act sanctions.

The bottom line is that Moscow would pretend to have substantially if not entirely achieved its SMO goals, giving up its immediate military lead in exchange for false promises: déjà vu all over again. Pretenses aside, it would accept a “quarter of a loaf” truce that preserves NATO to fight another day and sustains an anti-Russia Ukrainian rump state as a de facto NATO platform, as opposed to a clear military victory – which at the very least would have to include annexation of Odessa and Kharkov, and probably Kiev, plus either liquidation of the Ukrainian state entirely or, at worst, creation of a minimal rump Ukraine that’s effectively a Russian satellite and a member of the Union State with Russia and Belarus.

The latter outcome would shatter NATO and probably NATO’s concubine, the European Union. That’s precisely what the Washington Swamp can’t afford, Trump or no Trump. Thus, even if Trump were entirely sincere in promises to Moscow made on behalf of the United States (a very big “if” in my opinion), his ability to deliver on them would be at best highly questionable in light of an Executive Branch packed with neocons (what’s new?) and the implacable bipartisan hostility toward Russia in Congress. Then, even if, by some unbelievable miracle, Trump were able to ensure US and NATO performance on their commitments for the balance of his tenure, there would be no binding effect once he left office.

Granted, the above is just one possible scenario but one I submit is all too conceivable based on past performance of those concerned. If things go this way, not only does the GAE get a new lease on life and NATO live to fight another day, it would usher in heightened danger of war in the Middle East and the Western Pacific and, in due course, set the stage for renewed and possibly uncontrollable conflict in Europe in the not-too-distant future. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently warned that his country needs to be ready to fight a war with NATO within the next decade, and he’s almost certainly right – especially if he and his boss allow that organization to slip out of its well-deserved fade into oblivion, almost ensuring that war will come a lot sooner than in ten years.

In laying out this possible near-term scenario, I would dearly love to be proven wrong by events. However, I have vanishingly small hope that the foregoing could resonate with any reader with agency on the American side. Perhaps chances are slightly better on the Russian side. As for the Ukrainians and the Europeans – what they think doesn’t matter to anyone, not even to themselves.

Energy Wars

Could the Loss of Syria by the Russians Cause the Loss of Russia?

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by Claudiu Secara

Let’s face it. The loss of Syria by Russia is a monumental defeat with far ranging consequences. It’s not about the ISIS, as Mr. Putin claims, and it’s not about losing Russia’s only air and sea bases on the Mediterranean Coast. Mr. Doctorow goes on talkshows like Judge Napolitano’s, making the rounds to explain how Russia has actually already won its objectives in Syria. That’s a very low parroting of the same explanation given by Mr. Putin.

We are to believe that Russia defeated the ISIS in Syria and now it can retire. Far from the truth. The ISIS dressed in a business suit is now in power in Syria.

But the biggest loss for Mr. Putin is the loss of the pipeline war: From the Nord Stream, lost in a blowup attack by the US, to, now, the loss of the Ukraine pipeline starting January 1, to be followed by the advent of the Turkish pipeline.

That’s what the debacle in Syria is all about.

The Turks, so far dependent on Russian gas and oil, can now quickly get the pipeline built from the Gulf States right at their doorsteps through Syria. Erdogan has played the Russians.

The consequences for Russia are dire. Once the Turks are no longer dependent on Russian energy, the Turks can reassert themselves as the gatekeepers of the straits linking the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, basically the only exit for Russia to the world at large.

If we consider that the Syrian pipeline will come to fruition, it will not be limited to the Gulf countries’ energy resources; it can also carry oil and gas from the Central Asian countries. The oil from Azerbaijan, from Kazahstan, even from Turkmenistan can now flow – outside of Russia’s control.

The Europeans are back in business – and they don’t even need to die in the war in Ukraine in order to contain Russia and strangulate it economically.

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Fabricated Narratives

China, a more Nuanced View

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The_seventh_shape says:

I have lived in China for the last 7 years and will give my 2 cents. I think that R. and others here, including some who claim to live in China, have presented a overly rosey-eyed picture of China and a more nuanced view is called for.

Architecture and urban design is an interest of mine and I have explored numerous Chinese cities. Things can look impressive from a distance in those drone videos but there is an element of Ptomkin village here: when you get up close you see that in many cases, buildings are built to a low quality compared to other countries and workmanship is lacking in a lot of cases. You’d see a building that seems to be made of stone or brick but when you get close you realise it’s just a facade, with thin slices of stone put on steel frames or over plaster. Or you’d see a flowerbed and you’d get close and realise they are plastic flowers. Or you’d see a fancy skyscraper but getting closer you’d see it’s unoccupied (some of these eventually get occupied). Footpaths are generally of a very low quality in Chinese cities. They typically don’t cement down the stone tiles they make the footpaths with, and then because ebikes routinely drive on the footpaths the tiles get easily broken.

In Europe it is normal to see stone and brick buildings that are over 100 years old, but it’s very rare to find buildings of that age and stature in China. They rarely build with lasting materials like stone and brick. Almost the only stone buildings that one sees in China are ones built by Europeans over a century ago, like on the Bund in Shanghai or those built by the Russians in Dalian and Harbin, even though China has plenty of stone mines. They just prefer to build things cheaply and quickly. Chinese, and many Asians more generally, have a different attitude and less scruples about fakery, for instance, Chinese women routinely use beauty filters on their dating app pictures and think there’s nothing wrong with it, while Chinese men routinely dye their grey hair.

In Chinese cities they often do not maintain their buildings well and do not build them to last. I will give an example. When I first came to China I was wondering why the paint seems to peel off the buildings so often, even buildings that are new. Even in my apartment I noticed that the paint would flake off the walls with slight impact. Then I found out why: they don’t use primer before they paint!! Or perhaps they use inferior paint-and-primer. And this is typical of the Chinese attitude: get the job done as quickly and cheaply as possible; why use primer when it will cost more money and time and by the time the paint starts flaking off the apartments we’ll have the money in the bank.

There are a lot of very nice cities in China and also a lot of industrial hellholes, but I wouldn’t say China’s best cities outshine other countries’. They are not better or worse but just different. Ron’s article hyped up the urban planning but there is good and bad here. Guiyang, capital of Guizhou province for instance, is the worst planned city I’ve ever seen: in the city centre at every intersection there was railings preventing you from crossing the roads. You are forced to go either under a tunnel or over a footbridge to cross. Imagine doing that every city block! It is a city planned for cars, not pedestrians, and this is a common bias in Chinese city planning. There are cities in China with some wondrously designed areas, impressive skyscrapers, and things built on a massive scale. It should be noted though that most of these are designed by the big Western architecture firms like SOM and Zaha Hadid.

Also, though crime is relatively low in China, there are very high rates of PARKING crime, as I would call it, with people routinely parking their cars along the curb at zebra crossings and the authorities doing nothing about it.

You get the full range of stuff here from tasteful classical Chinese elegance to the tackiness of buildings covered with blinking, incoherent lighting displays. It’s rarely boring. The transportation infrastructure is often impressive but there are negatives too. For instance there are onerous security protocols that create bottlenecks in metro systems and train stations, for instance, all passengers must put their bags through a scanner and then walk through a scanner. Further, the high population density leads to very crowded buses and trains, and people can be loud on public transport. Luckily taxis are cheap.

Contrary to what the article suggested, Chinese university campuses and schools are not so attractive looking for the most part. There are no grand old university campuses like one finds in Europe or the US. There’s almost nothing that can be dated back beyond a century. There are some beautiful campuses and the best I’ve seen is Xiamen University.

Ron’s article also suggests that Chinese cities seem really futuristic. I’m not sure what people mean when they say this; maybe they are referring to how you do everything through your smart phone over here. I don’t necessarily see this as a good thing however. If you happen to lose your phone you can’t function and are in big trouble. I heard of one man who lost his phone and then committed suicide. I can relate, as I left my phone behind in a taxi once and felt seized by panic, though luckily I got it back later that day. I don’t necessarily see this ‘futurism’ as progress. It’s overdependence on technology. People here look at their phones way too much and about 50% of people who you will see here in parks or at urban lakes stare at their phones WHILE WALKING, often watching a drama or silly tiktok videos instead of enjoying the often beautiful surroundings.

Let me say a little about Xingjiang. I agree with Ron that the stories of genocide are most likely total rubbish. That said, things are not fine and dandy in Xingjiang and it’s clear that there is a serious security operation going on there. I know one American who is an adventurous traveller who went exploring there. He said there are certain places where foreigners cannot go. He tried to travel to a traditional Uyghur town in the far West and he had to pass 4 police checkpoints. He got through 3 but on the 4th was driven back by police to the train station. He saw hundreds of PLA men at one train station. He also said he took a bus trip that got stopped at checkpoints 14 times. At these checkpoints, all the Uyghurs on board were checked for their ID, but not the Han Chinese. As a foreigner he was questioned at these checkpoints and at one was kept for over an hour, as the bus waited. The bus journey took over 40 hours because of these delays. I don’t say this in judgment and I’m sure the CIA would just love to stir up trouble there given the slightest opening, like they did in Chechnya for the Russians.

Life in China is getting better in many ways. 7 years ago when I arrived in my city it had one metro line under construction. Now it has a fourth line opening in a few months time. Many new recreation facilities have opened, new malls and shining office towers, and old temples and buildings have been renovated. Some of the old-timers however-foreigners who have been living here for 20 years plus-miss the old days. They reminisce fondly about the Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin era when China was more wild and fun, albeit more corrupt, and you could ‘do whatever you damn well pleased.’