The US and the New Panamerican Scenarios

Spread the Word

by Germán Gorraiz López – Analyst

More Coups A-coming ?

The 2025-2030 five-year period will herald the emergence of a new multi-tentacled movement in the geopolitical landscape of Latin America. This “black wave” will entail the execution of “soft coups” aimed at replacing governments that are unresponsive to the demands of Washington with regimes that are under U.S. tutelage, thus rendering Manuel Ugarte’s vision of a Great Homeland an unattainable dream.

Return of the Monroe Doctrine with Trump

In a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Donald Trump, a future Republican candidate, asserted, “I am the only candidate who can make this promise: I will prevent World War III,” while criticizing the “excessive amount of weapons currently circulating in the world.” This suggests a potential return to the U.S. Isolationist Doctrine.

During a conference at the headquarters of the influential political magazine “The National Interest,” Trump outlined the core tenets of his foreign policy, summarized by the motto “America first.” This could effectively signal a revival of the Monroe Doctrine (America for the Americans) and a withdrawal of the U.S. from NATO military structures.

The Pacific Alliance: The U.S. Trojan Horse

Beneath the neoliberal façade of the Pacific Alliance lies a sophisticated geopolitical engineering project. Its ultimate objective is to undermine the political-integration project represented by UNASUR and intensify the isolation of progressive-populist governments in the region, particularly targeting Venezuela after the departure of the key architect of the Bolivarian Revolution, Hugo Chávez.

Another goal is to finalize the MERCOSUR economic integration project, established in 1991 with the signing of the Treaty of Asunción among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which later included Venezuela. Bolivia, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Suriname, and Guyana are recognized as “Associated States.”

This phagocytic strategy aims to eventually unite the Pacific Arc by integrating Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, and ultimately incorporating Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay). This follows Sherman Kent’s “carrot and stick” theory expounded in his book “Strategic Intelligence for North American World Politics” (1949).

Bolivia and the Lithium War

Bolivia holds 70% of the world’s lithium reserves, a crucial element for manufacturing cell phones and electric vehicles. However, the complexity of its extraction and processing has hindered Bolivia’s ability to develop its own industry due to a lack of necessary capital and technology.

The return of leftist leadership with Luis Arce’s overwhelming electoral victory and the extreme polarization of the judicial system followed the arrest of former President Jeanine Áñez, who is accused of “sedition and terrorism.” The Biden Administration subsequently reminded the Bolivian Government of the need to uphold human rights and respect the principles of the Inter-American Democratic Charter. This was a clear warning that the Bolivian Government should facilitate the entry of Anglo-American companies and realign Bolivia with U.S.-friendly nations; otherwise, a new soft coup against Luis Arce could occur with the blessing of the Trump Administration.

Nicaragua in Trump’s Crosshairs?

China is undertaking the challenge of constructing a new canal in Nicaragua similar to the proposed Kra Isthmus Canal to bypass the congested Strait of Malacca, plagued by piracy. In 2010, China inaugurated a gas pipeline connecting with Turkmenistan, diversifying its energy sources away from dependence on Russia.

During Trump’s first term, the U.S. Congress passed the Nica Act (Nicaraguan Investment Conditionality Act of 2017), which aims to freeze international loans from U.S. satellite institutions (like the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank) to Nicaragua, with the intent of causing financial deprivation and economic suffocation.

In Trump’s second term, we might witness a color revolution orchestrated by the CIA aimed at forcing the ruling elites to call for new general elections, striving to end the Sandinista legacy and return Nicaragua to the orbit of U.S.-aligned countries.

Invasion of Panama

Trump commented on the Panama Canal in 2023, stating, “We built the Panama Canal and we should never have handed it over to the Panamanians because today it is in the hands of the Chinese.” This suggests that a repeat of the 1989 invasion of Panama (Operation Just Cause) could be on the table, returning the Canal to U.S. control and blocking Chinese ships from passing, which would force them to seek alternative, costlier routes.

Cuban Missile Crisis

Considering that Trump will maintain the outdated embargo on Cuba, it is likely that emotional detachment from the U.S. will grow in Havana. This could create an opening for the adept geopolitical strategist Putin to establish a new military collaboration treaty with Cuba, reminiscent of the secret pact signed in 1960 in Moscow between Raúl Castro and Khrushchev.

As Putin announced, the first step will be “the deployment in Cuba of a mobile complex for the reception of data from Russian satellites,” with the possibility of subsequently setting up a radar base at the abandoned Lourdes military base to monitor communications in Washington. Additionally, there may be plans for bases equipped with Iskander missiles after the U.S. deploys Aegis anti-missile systems in Romania, which could potentially revive the Kennedy-Khrushchev Missile Crisis of October 1962.

Risk of A Military Coup in Argentina

Argentina’s economy is teetering on the brink of stagflation (a combination of runaway inflation and economic recession), which poses significant risks. This combination distorts the market, and attempts at shock therapy to combat stagnation may inadvertently worsen inflation.

In an effort to boost consumption and escape recession, fiscal and monetary expansion strategies will be necessary, potentially leading to a cycle of secular stagnation. The collateral effects could include worsening poverty rates and increased social unrest. With 52% of the Argentine population already close to the poverty line, the combination of misery and hunger could trigger riots next fall, leading to the flight of Javier Milei from Argentina and possibly resulting in a military coup with U.S. support.

In conclusion, we are on the brink of a new wave of destabilization in Latin America’s geopolitical scene. The early signs are already visible and will continue to erupt over this decade, with Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Grenada, and Panama exemplifying the so-called “virtual or postmodern coups” that the U.S. will orchestrate in the coming five years amid a return to economic protectionism and a reconfiguration of the global economy.

152800cookie-checkThe US and the New Panamerican ScenariosShare this page to Telegram
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

0 Comments
Oldest
Newest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments