by Claudiu Secara

Let’s face it, the idea that Russia by itself can confront the West and win is not borne out by a realistic analysis. Let’s start with the population. Russia, as a country of 146 million people, is dwarfed by the 450 million European population. Furthermore, the actual ethnic Russians are only 103 million. The rest are very much restless subgroups. The Tatars are the second, with just about 3 percent, but the remainder is divided among dozens of ethnic groups, mostly of ambivalent loyalty. Now, the actual Russian population is also fractured between the nationalists, even some ultra nationalists, and a substantial percentage of philo-Westerners. A back of the envelope calculation shows that the big, supposedly domineering Russia is actually on a par with Germany. Yes, there are some 80 million Germans, just about the same as 80 million Russian nationalists.

And that is not even counting France and the UK, or any of the non-core European nations, like Poland.

Then, there is the economic power comparison. We learned that Russia is the Number One economy in Europe on a PPP basis, that is under 7 trillion dollars in 2024. Maybe. On the basis of its energy resources and vast natural resources, it is an equal match with Germany, let’s say. But then, the question is: are we comparing Russia to Germany ($6.5 trillion on the basis of PPP), or France, or are we looking at the rivalry between Russia’s nominal $2.182 trillion GDP vs. EU’s nominal $19.5 trillion GDP?

Let’s add to that the US economy, at $29 trillion, and you get the picture. Roughly speaking, it’s 2 trillion against 50 trillion, more or less, for the Transatlantic alliance. A weak hand. A very weak hand.

But that is not all. On top of that, there are some 52 countries which are directly allied with the West, from Japan to Australia. We don’t need to add their GDP to understand where the balance of power is, here.

Still, Russia could not be defeated and it would probably never be defeated militarily, on its own front. But the confrontation is not really military. So far, the West is only probing the Russian defenses without actually engaging in a shooting war with Russia. In that sense, Russia is able to claim victory by just standing its ground.

Now, we’re seeing the start of the next level of the economic war against Russia. All Russia’s international ties to the West are severed. All its exports of oil and gas are being cut. A full-spectrum embargo is being put in place. Yes, Russia can still defend itself. And it can still live under minimum interactions with the West, but at a very severe cost to its progress and its population in the long run. Just the same as happened to the Soviet Union.

So, where are we? Is Russia’s defeat a given?

Enter China.

Now, that’s the big gorilla waiting outside of the fighting ring. At 1.4 billion, China’s population dwarfs the entire population of the West, Europe and the US with all its Anglophone sphere combined. Its GDP, nominally at $18 trillion, is less than half of the EU and the US in dollar terms. But, in this case, the real PPP comparison is meaningful because on those terms, China’s GDP is on a different planet. At 37 trillion, according to reliable sources such as https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-worlds-20-largest-economies-by-gdp-ppp/, it is a good match for the entire sclerotic West.

So, now we can really compare apples to apples. An ultra dynamic economy, with a super-motivated work force, endless cohorts of educated engineering talent, and organized top-down in order to mobilize all national resources, China is quietly blazing ahead. Unlike the Russians, who are mostly provincial, traditionalist, uncouth country bumpkins — a semi-shamanistic society (with a population that spent more on fortune-tellers last year than on food) — China has penetrated every corner of the West. China’s diaspora is found in every walk of life in the Western societies. From Chinese restaurants in every hamlet to high-tech professionals in big companies, research universities and R&D positions at every level, the Chinese have acquired a deep understanding of the average American and they know how the Western economy and its political structure function. There are 60 million Chinese in this diaspora alone, which is equal to the entire population of the UK or France.

There are many ways to look at the US vs. China and highlight points of weakness. The national debt is one. The US accumulates roughly 8 trillion dollars extra debt every 4 years and at a rate that is still growing. It has reached the point where the interest payments alone, $1 trillion in 2024, are higher than the military expenditures. China’s debt? It is almost impossible to get a real number from the Western media. And that’s because it is always mixed with local government debt, corporate debt, other liabilities, etc. Strictly, China’s federal government debt at the end of 2023 was $4.2 trillion. Compare that to $35 trillion debt by the US federal government at the end of 2023. You get the picture!

So where is China vis-à-vis Russia’s confrontation with the West? Does it prefer a stronger Russia or a weaker Russia? In terms of the geopolitics and national interests, China should prefer a weaker Russia, unable to fight on its western borders and defend its vastly underdeveloped eastern territories.

While the West aims to diminish Russia, even to partition it, probably China does too. Given, of course, that Russia is not totally taken over and made into a Western colony. But China can partake in exploring Eastern Siberia, thank you very much.

In this scenario, one can envision the next-level confrontation between the Talmudic West and China taking place over the remains of a wounded Russia. And only then to be followed by the inevitable one-on-one between the West and China.