IGOR STRELKOV /letter fragment/ (machine translation)

Of course, I was extremely worried about the messages about the events of the first half of January, which were sent to me on the 15th-16th (before that there was no mail for over two weeks). On the one hand, nothing unexpected happened – all the actions of recent “partners” and “friends” were predicted in advance. On the other hand, it is one thing to talk about the inevitability of a “volcanic eruption”, and quite another to “get caught in it”… Analytical “foresight” is of little help here, if there are no means to correctly and promptly respond to the “elements” (and I have not had and do not have anything like that, unfortunately).

So, on to the main news:

— I consider the most important news to be that China has shown its readiness to comply with US sanctions against our tanker fleet (blocking 5 tankers with Russian oil in Chinese territorial waters). It has been clear to me for a long time that China is far from supporting Russia in the current NWO and (at best) was ready to “benevolently tolerate” all the inconveniences associated with it for some time. It has also been clear for a long time that “China’s patience” in connection with the said inconveniences is either running out or has expired completely: the SMO has lasted for almost three years, and Russia’s victory (and the end of the military conflict on terms that suit Moscow) is not even on the horizon. Accordingly, Beijing is demonstrating its irritation and “transparently hinting” to Moscow that “it’s time to end it on any terms, otherwise…” It is not clear to me how to “get out” of this wonderful situation (having only North Korea as an ally). Especially considering that society is not mobilized at all, and is already very tired of the war and does not feel any enthusiasm for its further continuation.

However, Moscow is somehow unable to leave the SMO “under any conditions” (as they already tried to do in 2022 during the so-called “Istanbul agreements”). – I think I wrote somewhere before that the situation is almost like the joke about the hunter who climbed into the bear’s den: – “Kum! I caught a bear here!” – “Then drag him here!” – “I can’t – he’s holding me!” Kyiv will not submit to “Russian conditions” (i.e., the separation from “Ukraine” of not only Crimea and Donbass, but also Zaporozhye and Kherson) now (while its front is generally strong). It is even doubtful that it will “agree to the loss” of Donbass and Crimea. But how – even if Zelensky (suddenly) agrees to “make a deal” – how to “foist” on the Russians the return to the so-called “Ukraine” of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, already constitutionally annexed to the Russian Federation – I can’t imagine. No, of course, with certain propaganda efforts, the majority of the populace (under the slogan “as long as there is no war”) will “swallow” this, too, but two problems remain: 1) How will the army react to this? 2) (This is most important) Who will guarantee that – having occupied the south of the said regions, the “Kyiv partners” will not immediately “spit” on these very guarantees? – Personally, I believe that this is the only way it will be, and, as they say, “further everywhere”. The worst thing for “conditional Moscow” is for the population not to understand (in the indicated scenario) that: a) we lost the war; b) the war, although lost, is not over, “not even for now”. And that, in all likelihood, is how it will be, if we do not radically change our own (I emphasize) attitude to this very SVO and the confrontation with NATO / USA / the West as a whole.

In general, sitting in the Penal Colony, it would be difficult for me to give any recommendations on how to “return the favor of the Celestial Empire” – to develop such recommendations, I need a deep and comprehensive immersion in the history and practice of interstate relations for about 15 years (and this is the “very minimum”). Unfortunately, no one will give me such an opportunity in the near future. And without further at least “friendly neutrality” of China, the continuation of large-scale military actions seems very problematic to me. Well, unless we undertake (suddenly – with a delay of 3 years) sharp, fast and (most importantly) successful “super-efforts”. Which the Kremlin categorically did not want to undertake for the past 10 years.

Whether “crawling to Beijing on my knees and back” with the aim of “begging to wait a little longer” will produce any effect – I honestly don’t know – I’m not competent enough. Although I would probably “humble my pride and crawl – not for the sake of vanity, but for Russia.”
Very briefly – the situation at the front:

Our purely tactical successes (important only on the scale of Donbass, and not on the scale of the strategic goals of the SMO) are NO MORE THAN UNPLEASANT for the enemy: “Have they surrendered Kurakhovo and Toretsk? – so what… Will they surrender Pokrovsk / Krasnoarmeysk? – Also, as they say, “not a great loss.” – These are not even prerequisites for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to begin to fall apart and “open the front.” The enemy’s slow and organized retreat in the south of the DPR only shortens the front line, and is very “expensive” (for our troops). At this rate, we can “crawl” “to the Dnieper” for another 5-10 years. What am I getting at? – Because the enemy does not consider these territorial losses as something “irreparably important.” He continues to “trade territory for time” in Donbass, implementing the enemy strategy of “wearing down Russia”, drawn up for Kyiv from NATO headquarters. In the areas that are truly important to the enemy (Kharkov, Kursk, etc.), the Ukrainian Armed Forces are “hanging on by the skin of their teeth” and our offensive there is not even “crawling”, but frankly “stalling”. At the same time, we (with the persistence of clinical idiots) continue to “grind down in meat storms” those who are still (by the end of the 3rd year of the war!) still capable of moving forward in them and even winning at the cost of their lives (at least – health). But this is not an endless resource! Instead of “spending” it on a real breakthrough / breakthroughs of the enemy front with strategic goals – we generously “flood with blood” patches of land, “unknown heights”, forest belts and villages in areas that are purely secondary even for the enemy. And at the same time, he is accumulating his new strategic reserves for the spring…

I. V. Girkin
17.01.2025