Igor Strelkov on upcoming talks in Istanbul
Contrary to general expectations, I, as usual, predict failure of any negotiations, simply based on ordinary logic, on ordinary common sense.
Ukraine has now secured the unconditional support of Europe, with continued support from the United States. The flow of weapons, ammunition, and mercenaries is constantly increasing. Four million drones have been promised this year alone, double the figures from last year.
Ukraine has prepared strong reserves and managed to preserve them during the fighting. Our offensive has long been stalled and stopped, despite the losses suffered. Now is the time from a military point of view, from a point of view of common sense, for them to launch a counterattack and try to at least improve, if we are talking about negotiations, their negotiating positions through successes on land, in the air and at sea, which they can at least try to achieve by using up the accumulated reserves.
Whether they will do it or not, I certainly do not know. However, I assume that they need a ceasefire to complete the concentration of troops, ships, to accumulate drones, ammunition in those places that can be fired upon by Russian artillery, missile forces, aviation and conventional drones. Having done this, they will most likely, under any pretext, naturally blaming Russia, break the ceasefire and strike.
Therefore, I believe that this proposal for a 30-day ceasefire is not a result of Trump’s pressure, but another tactical ploy, since it is very convenient for Ukraine to take advantage of the ceasefire to prepare for its offensive, for a new round of hostilities.
Unfortunately, even if these negotiations suddenly go smoothly and even if Ukraine does not launch an offensive, nothing will change either. Since its only main demand will be the return of Russia to the borders of 1991. And the Ukrainian side will stand extremely firmly on this, since it now feels significant strength and significant support behind it.
In addition, as far as I know, Mr. Witkoff is going to present us with 22 points that we must accept to begin negotiations (at least, this is what was mentioned in the news). If these 22 points still contain demands to transfer the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and the Kinburn Spit under military control of Ukraine, then in fact we will be forced to make concessions without a fight, to give up strategic bridgeheads that are extremely important both for us (for the defense of the Dnieper line) and for the enemy (as a bridgehead for launching an offensive on Crimea).
I don’t really know how true this is – most likely, all this will be very highly classified. Nevertheless, I have such assumptions, and there are grounds for these assumptions.
In any case, having failed to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, having failed to defeat its army, we do not have normal negotiating positions that would allow us to defend Russia’s state sovereignty over the annexed territories, even those that are currently held by our troops.
Therefore, only a fool or a saboteur, secretly assisting the enemy in the information sphere, can talk about a quick end to the war and some kind of compromise peace. I think we have more than enough of both.
I am not one of them, so I am sure that the war will continue until one of the sides wins completely. I hope that it will ultimately be Russia.
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