Trade War, Tariffs and Defenses Against Globalism: Can They Succeed?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

Ever since the days of Herbert Hoover and the official start of the Great Depression the concept of trade tariffs has been readily demonized across most of academia and among the majority of modern economic ideologies. It is actually one area where globalists and free market economists tend to align (though each group has very different reasons).

Proponents of Adam Smith’s free market philosophy or Ludwig Von Mises and his Austrian school are Just as likely to be opposed to Donald Trump’s tariff plans as any globalist from the halls of Davos.

First and foremost we have to make it clear what tariffs are: Tariffs are taxes on international companies importing goods from other nations. These taxes are designed to force companies to import from countries outside of the tariff list or produce goods domestically. The primary targets of tariffs are actually corporations. The secondary targets are countries on the tariff list.

Austrian economists in their opposition to tariffs operate on the assumption that large corporations are “free market” entities. They also assume that globalism is a product of free markets.

Adam Smith might have witnessed the corruption of mercantalism, but he had no inkling of the monstrosity of modern globalism and how it would ultimately pervert the free market ideal. The same goes for Mises. Their support for global trade was contingent on the idea that government interference is always the root problem, the fly in the ointment.

They did not take into account the blurring of lines between corporations, governments and NGOs – They did not consider the corporate shadow government of Davos and the manipulation of markets in the name of “free trade”. They couldn’t have even fathomed the creation of organizations like the IMF, World Bank, the BIS, etc. at the time they came up with their economic theories.

After the Bretton Woods conference Mises would go on to question the motives of the new “global order” and the trade agreements being put in place. He would also oppose at least some aspects of globalism before his death, leaving Austrians to debate the merits of “good globalism” vs “bad globalism”.

The reality is that there is no “good globalism”. It doesn’t exist because the entities dictating global trade collude rather than compete. They are not actually interested in free markets, they are interested in global monopoly. And corporations are the key to this monopoly.

Adam Smith criticized the idea “joint stock companies” (corporations), but there are a lot of Austrians and Anarcho-capitalists that defend international companies as if they are an inherent evolution of free market progress. This is simply not so. Global corporations (and central banks) are pure socialist constructs chartered by governments and given special protection. Their immunity to constitutional restrictions serves government interests and government legal chicanery serves corporate interests.

This is the opposite of free markets. I’ll say it again – Under the current conditions, global conglomerates are NOT free market organizations. They destroy free markets by using government partnerships to erase competition.

The covid event and the rise of woke propaganda in the US are perfect examples of the collusion between companies and governments to institute social engineering and erase free economic participation. Anyone not suspicious of these entities after everything that happened is beyond help at this point.

These corporations also act as wealth siphons; sucking up consumer cash in one country only to deposit it in other countries instead of cycling that wealth (after their cut) back into the economy they rely on for sales. In other words, global corporations act as a kind of wealth redistribution machine that takes money and jobs from Americans and spreads them around the world to the detriment of the American public.

As the middlemen of this wealth redistribution scheme, companies generate vast profits while people on both sides of the exchange get very little in return. Mexico might seem like it benefits from the NAFTA trade imbalances, but this is a mistake – The Mexican people and their standard of living enjoy minimal benefits; the companies that use them for labor get the advantage, along with some government officials on the take.

In turn, US GDP and our supposed national wealth continues to rise due to global corporations. But the majority of that wealth increase is not going to Americans, it’s going to the .0001% of elites. The longer globalism carries on the wider the wealth gap becomes. This is an undeniable fact and I think people on the left and the right mostly agree on this issue, but nobody wants to make the hard decisions and do something about it.

Leftists think bigger government and more regulation is the answer. Conservatives think smaller government and less regulation is the answer. Conservatives are closer to the mark, but neither solution confronts the core problem of collusion between governments and conglomerates.

Keep in mind, the US operated on tariffs for hundreds of years. The “T-word” did not become a bad word until the creation of corporations, the Federal Reserve system and the income tax.

So, I stand with my Austrian School economist friends on most things, but when they cry foul on Trump’s tariffs I have to remind them that the situation is not as simple as “government interference bad”. The current system is long overdue for a course correction and fiscal Libertarianism is not going to provide it. They think they’re defending free markets, but they’re not.

Another key problem of globalism is forced interdependency. If each nation is producing an ample supply of their own necessary resources, they have resilient domestic job creation, and they decide to trade excess goods with each other then global markets make sense. But, what happens then when each nation is pressured though trade agreements to rely on every other nation for the basic economic needs of their populace?

Then we must reexamine the value of globalism in general.

International economic interdependency is a form of slavery, especially when corporations and NGO middlemen are involved. Only resource redundancy and localism foster true free markets and individual liberty. Tariffs can help to energize local production and trade and make communities more self reliant. That said, there’s going to be a cost.

The comparisons made between Donald Trump and Herbert Hoover are rampant and have been since 2016. I warned during Trump’s first term that accelerating fiscal decline and growing stagflation could be dropped in his lap and blamed on conservative policies. That is to say, anti-globalism would be blamed for the financial destruction caused by globalists. I continue to believe that this agenda is still in play.

Hoover was blamed for exacerbating the Great Depression in 1930 with his Smoot-Hawley tariffs. In truth, the Great Depression spread because of a series of policy decisions by major banks and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted to this openly in 2002). At the time it didn’t matter who caused it – Hoover was president and so he was the scapegoat.

The same situation could happen for Trump if he’s not careful, and all conservatives will be blamed by extension. It’s important to remember that US production has been hollowed out by decades of government interference supporting globalization, along with unchallenged corporate power. Reining in corporations with tariffs is not going to be enough, there must also be incentives to reverse the damage done by decades of government corruption.

I can’t think of any other way to rebuild America’s production base fast enough to counter the price increases that will inevitably come with tariffs. Defeating inflation would require an unprecedented national effort to bring back manufacturing specifically for necessities. Tariffs by themselves are not going to make this happen.

We need mass goods, energy and housing NOW, not several years from now. Otherwise, in the long run tariffs will only make the situation worse. Libertarians are right to warn of negative effects on American consumers, but the solution is not to let corporations do whatever they please and for globalism to continue unchallenged. The solution is to break globalism and return to a domestically independent model.

Finally, there’s the issue of the dollar and its world reserve status. After Bretton Woods the great unspoken arrangement was that America would act as the military pillar of the western world (and apparently the consumer cash cow of the world). In exchange, the US would enjoy the advantages of having the world reserve currency.

What advantages? Namely, the dollar could be printed well beyond any other currency for decades without suffering the immediate effects of hyperinflation because most of those dollars would be held overseas. The breakup of NATO and a trade war might trigger the end of this arrangement. Meaning, all those dollars held in foreign banks could come flooding back into the US and cause egregious inflation.

Reserve status has long been the Achilles Heel of the US and it must end eventually. Just take note that globalists have been preparing for this shift since at least 2008 with the SDR basket and CBDCs. This past week the EU announced they will be distributing retail CBDCs by the end of this year. They know what’s coming. A trade war will not only require the Trump Administration to facilitate increased domestic production, but also facilitate a new commodity backed currency system to protect against the fall of the dollar.

In the meantime, individual citizens and communities are going to have to prepare as globalism breaks down. This means local production of goods, retailers seeking out local suppliers, people trading goods and services through barter networks, etc. State leaders should also consider introducing commodity backed scrip to offset any potential damage to the dollar. They should also open up more natural resources to improve local industry.

There’s a lot to do, and not much time to do it.

The Orban-Trump-Netanyahu-Georgescu Axis (Reposted)

 But what can one make of the turmoil in Romania these days? A new contender for the presidency of Romania jumped out of nowhere to be the leading candidate for the second round. Who is Călin Georgescu and what is his intellectual weltanschauung?

A good introduction to his thinking is found in an unedited interview with Reiner Fuellmich, ICIC on December 2022 and posted on May 27, 2023 on YouTube https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UhI2Fyr3ZRc. And it’s pretty embarrassing. This is a man with a serious pedigree, Secretary General of Romania’s Ministry of Environment, before he was catapulted up to the UN Agency for the same environmental protection as one of the regional directors; he worked there for some 18 years, visiting almost every country of the world and making or implementing decisions of global importance.

All of that despite his command of English being at the level of junior high school… And his general intellectual outlook was a call to traditional agrarian artisanal nostalgia. But when we get to promoting the benefits of such a simple life for our modern world, he explains that such a lifestyle made possible a life expectancy in the range of 180 to 200 years. Even Reiner flinched at that point and adjusted his glasses. I’m sorry, can you repeat that? Yes, of course, Georgescu explains, in Guinea I met people who were 180 years old. It is very possible.

Not sure about Reiner Fuellmich, and whether he realized that his guest was ruining his interview. Interestingly, it is not clear to this day what role he played and who promoted Reiner Fuellmich in those days, but he gathered a large following in the days of COVID as the lawyer of last resort, single-handedly setting up a peoples’ tribunal against the perpetrators of the COVID fraud. Suffice it to add that a month after the interview with Călin Georgescu, the Germans arrested him for alleged embezzlement and had him in preventive custody for over a year.

Well, back to our man Călin Georgescu. Now this is a fellow who, all his life, up to retirement with a fat pension from the same source, was one of the grandees of the liberal establishment. He served the liberal agenda and now he’s turned against his masters. Interesting conversion of someone who served his masters “against his conscience.”

But what can explain his meteoric rise and his sudden endorsement by obscure forces? The Russians stand accused. On what basis?

Let’s consider who are the main protagonists in the present conjuncture in Eastern Europe. The Russians, yes. Then the Americans. Biden’s Globalists or Trump’s sovereigntists? Then there is Netanyahu of Israel and its zealot ass-kisser Orban.

Little known to the public is Orban’s assiduous pursuit of revisionist claims on the Romanian territory of Transylvania, as well as claims against Ukraine’s Transcarpatica, regions once colonized by feudal Hungary. Orban is betting on two winners in the global war: Netanyahu’s Israel and Putin’s Russia, backed by Trump’s America, against the European Western establishment. That would almost guarantee his anointment as the Viceroy of Europe for a start.

But the current Romanian orientation is staunchly pro-EU, pro-Germany, especially with Klaus Johannis as president fully endorsing the Soros agenda, a sworn enemy of Orban.

Now the plot thickens. Brussels, Germany, Soros, and Biden on one side. Putin, Netanyahu, Trump and Orban on the other side. So who could have been behind the TikTok promotion of the inept Georgescu? Who had the skills and the motivation? And the alibi? The elephant in the room is … a 3-headed mastodon.

Putin obviously supports Netanyahu’s ethnic cleansing, so a little courtesy is due – just replace the anti-Russian government in Romania with a pro-Russian one, OK? At the same time, Orban is in high heaven betting on Trump, as he is anti-EU and opposes sanctions on Russia. Orban calls his personal friend, Netanyahu, and asks for a favor, as he, Orban, is the only European openly supporting the genocide in Gaza. Can you get this non-entity elected for me? And then he turns to Putin and claims to have helped him in a most critical moment. “Remember, Vlad, when we get to the next Yalta reconfiguration of Europe – all I ask for is that piece of real estate called Transylvania.” Never mind, Hungarians make up less than 6 percent of the population in Transylvania. We can work out a bit of ethnic cleansing, just like in Gaza.

Now the president of Romania has just resigned under huge pressure from the new Trump envoy for Europe, that’s Mr. Grenell, the personage much hated in Germany. The prime minister of Romania is compromised. The elections are compromised, and the entire leadership of Romania is suddenly compromised.

Orban goes to Spain and proclaims at the conference sponsored by Le Pen, Wilders and other pro-Israeli so-called conservatives, that this is the time for the Reconquista. First stage of the plan is a big success.

But where will all this Trump obscenity get us in the end? Only time will tell.

“Let The Man Work!” – Response to RFK Jr. Fans

by Peggy Hall via Substack.com

Excerpts:

Today’s hot topic is whether we should be tapping our feet impatiently or sitting on our hands while “Bob” (RFK Jr.) settles into his role as HHS Secretary.

I’ve titled this video & substack “Let the Man Work” – not because that’s my stance, but because it’s the rallying cry from several corners of the health freedom movement.

In my video linked above, I dived into several examples of this mentality, including a Substack from Dr. Elizabeth Vliet entitled “Time to be patient…Give our new Administration time to work!” Dr. Vliet suggests we pump the brakes on our concerns – even as parents follow Bob’s health guidance for their children to become human pin-cushions.

I also dived into comments from Charlene and Ty Bollinger – whom I’ve met personally and found quite amiable. Let me be clear: It’s likely these are well-intentioned people. They’ve apparently spent years battling pharmaceutical harms, and their hearts seem to be in the right place, but good intentions and good analysis don’t always go hand in hand – and that’s where my perspective differs on “letting Bob work.”

Several viewers forwarded me the Bollinger’s Twitter thread “Unpacking the Lies You’ve Been Fed” – apparently defending Bob’s inaction.

But what about Bob’s own words?

His Senate confirmation hearings where he plainly stated, “I support an uptake in vaccines,” and “I recommend parents and children follow the CDC vaccine schedule.” Words that stand in stark contrast to what many expected from his appointment.

The final question people often ask me is: “Peggy, who are we supposed to trust? You’re exposing Bob, Ellen Musk, the Vatican, Netanyahu… who’s left?”

My counter-question: Who said you’re supposed to trust anyone? Why this desperate need to place faith in public figures? It’s deeply troubling that people are so eager to trust these “public serpents.”

Read the full article at Substack.com.

An Endgame In Ukraine?

by Seymour Hersh via https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/an-endgame-in-ukraine
Excerpt

Washington remains split as secret talks on a settlement proceed

In Washington, the Democratic Party leadership, having spent years ignoring the impairment of President Joe Biden, is now ignoring the increasing evidence that Russia has won the war in Ukraine. Leading Democrats in Congress have returned to the mentality of the Cold War in their contempt for and fear of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

I can report that some of those involved in the on-and-off secret talks between Ukraine and Russia are convinced that the long stalemated war will soon be ended by a closely calculated division of territory that has been lost by each side in a war that Putin chose to initiate in February of 2022.

There is still a widespread belief in the Democratic Party that President Donald Trump’s chronic complaints about the leaders of the nations that make up NATO are not paying their way are, as one international scholar told me, “a ruse.” Trump is really interested, the scholar said, “in weakening democratic, liberal Europe and its collective institutions in order to make it easier for his new ally, Putin, to throw his weight around.” The scholar quoted a recent essay by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the world economy editor of the Telegraph, who compared Trump’s actions to the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between the Soviet Union and Germany that barred the countries from attacking each other. and left Germany to focus on Western Europe, drawing the UK into the war.

The scholar cited a number of Trump administration actions to back up his view of Trump as little more than a Russia asset. The president has ceased arms shipments to Ukraine and intelligence sharing with its military. He ordered an end to offensive cyber operations against Russia. He and Vice President JD Vance publicly supported pro-Russian political parties in recent European elections. Some of his key aides are working to revive the flow of cheap Russian gas to Germany via the remaining Nord Stream pipelines “to keep Western European countries, especially Germany, dependent on Russian gas and oil, thus providing Putin with another lever of influence” in Western Europe.

The major American media, most notably the New York Times, remain hostile to Putin. The newspaper’s opinion and news columns repeatedly express the belief that, having won a large chunk of Ukraine on the battlefield, Putin would take advantage of any negotiated settlement to deepen Russia’s hold on Ukraine. It is feared that Putin would take a settlement, which could include the dropping of all sanctions on Russian gas and oil trading, as a sign of American weakness, and that Russia would undercut the leadership of the Baltic states and continue to undermine Nato and the European Union.

Why Donald Trump is a Theatrical Figure

The problem with Trump is that his intellectual message is that of a 12-year-old to his cheering crowd fantasizing a 12-year-old’s solutions to very complex situations. 

While it stuns everyone in the first minute,  it proves untenable a minute later. Why are millions of illegal immigrants in the US? Because they are in high demand by businesses, from the agro business to the homeowners landscapers. 

Why are Chinese products invading the American consumers? Because they are in demand as the only available products, never mind for a good price.

Are tariffs on such products going to make America rich again, as Trump sings the song of MAGA? No, they are only going to raise the inflation rate, making foreign companies richer and impoverishing the American nation, etc, etc.

The solution?! There is no solution. At least no magic solution. A huge long depression might help restructure American economic culture. But in the short term, there is no solution.

Europe at Cross Roads

by Claudiu Secara

“If there is one thing we can thank US President Donald Trump for, it is this: he has decisively stripped away the ridiculous notion, long cultivated by western media, that the United States is a benign global policeman enforcing a ‘rules-based order’.

“Washington is better understood as the head of a gangster empire, embracing 800 military bases around the world. Since the end of the Cold War, it has been aggressively seeking ‘global full-spectrum domination’, as the Pentagon doctrine politely terms it.”

Commenting on the above words by Jonathan Cook, yes, it’s easy to blame the US for the world’s troubles of today. But let’s face the root of the 20th-century tragedy, and that is the very little-recognized destruction of Europe in two European wars (not so much world wars) in which both the Anglo-Americans and the Russians prevailed. Unfortunately for him, it was Tsar Nicholas II who betrayed his very specific commitment to his cousin, German Emperor Wilhelm II, not to fall for English intrigues and go to war with him.

The two wars were incited by the Anglos with the goal of taking over both Europe and Russia. The consequences were totally unforeseen. Europe was destroyed, so that there was very little to take over — but an even bigger menace was created for the Anglo perpetrators. Russia was lurking, biding its time in order to extend, little by little, further and further west. Remember the Crimean War of 1853-56, when the UK, France and the Ottomans defeated Russia? Little mentioned is that only 20 years later, in the war of 1877 pitting Russia and the Romanian provinces against the Ottomans, Russia completely defeated the Turks and pushed them almost entirely out, not only from Crimea but from the Balkans as well.

Same story in WWII. The net result of the four years of war was Western Europe’s loss of the Eastern European nations.

Now, one interesting question concerns the benefit vs loss endured by the Europeans on both sides of the divide. Most of the West in the end gained a good lifestyle, if not a good economy, due to the Marshall Plan and the continued supply of subsidies by the US in its cold war against the Soviet Union. For the Eastern European side, the outcome was more mixed. For Romania, for example, it was highly advantageous to have been liberated from the clutches of the West and its economic plunder; they were able to develop economically, educate the 85% illiterate peasant population and even develop their own high-quality industry and political personality. But for Hungary or Poland, it was a drawback as they lost their subservient internal colonies on the one hand and previous partnership with the West on the other hand.

But the Cold War ended in an undecided way. Did the Soviet Union really fold, in defeat? Is the new Russia just some kind of Nigeria with nukes? The (cold) war continued. So we come to today’s peak of the three year war in Ukraine. The new Russia is no longer acting under the auspices of the revolutionary soviet concepts of fraternity with the former economic underclass of the world. The new Russia demands its own pound of flesh. And that changes the political and the economic philosophy; now it acts just as ruthlessly as the West.

Case in point: Syria. When it found out that it was no longer cost effective to support the Assad people, it abandoned its best friends in the region to the hyenas’ massacres in broad daylight. And the new Russia went ahead with the killing of their own millennia-long brothers in Ukraine on an industrial scale. Why? Was it in order to help their brothers under the Ukrainian regime, as Igor Strelkov was asking the Kremlin to do in 2014? No. In 2014, Russia abandoned their brothers. It only became obvious to them 10 years later what was the aim of the West in attempting to take over Donbass. It wasn’t the environmentally negative coal reserves or the oil to be fracked. It was the rare earth metals that the Americans were out to get. The Russians were so far behind in focusing on the rare earth metals that they neglected to exploit their own resources, falling far behind countries like Myanmar and Thailand.

It turns out that we have a new Russia indeed, no longer anti-imperialist, but a Russia discovering its own economic imperialist ambitions. Not just imperial, but imperialist in its ambitions.

And that’s where the myopic Anglo American provocations have brought us, the rest of the world: to a new dilemma. Should we applaud the implosion of the US gangster monster? Or should we decry the bad situation, the loss of the US military umbrella which leaves all the European nations — and the Arabs in the Middle East — open to their aggressive neighbors, Russia and Israel?

As a classic mafia boss, Trump shrugs off any moral responsibility over the tragedy that has befallen the Ukainians, as well as the Europeans, and the Arabs, now defenseless in the face of ISIS and Israel — both offshoots of the same American policy in the region.

As for the Europeans, maybe a last minute wakeup call will enable them to regroup, marshal their potential, and manage, for the first time in modern history, to act as one — as the inheritor of the once powerful Holy Roman Empire of the German Nation. But maybe not. With such traitors as Hungary, always a mercenary nation since the Khazarian times, in the service of whoever pays them more, it is a tall order. The Hungarians were betting on the defeat of the Khazars by the Slavs in the 800s and abandoned their masters in the steppes of Asia. Having become the new Apostolic mercenaries for the Catholic Church, they established their own feudal fiefdom in Panonia. Now, they lick the asses of Russia and China.

But no matter the long term outcome of the Russian threat looming over Europe, the Old Continent has a duty to re-arm itself and consolidate itself on an equal footing with the new contenders on the geopolitical world map. And even if Europe decides to enter into a consortium of sorts with Russia in the long term, it should do it from a solid position as it represents the legacy of humanity’s explosive rise from destitution to the Industrial Age and then the AI Age.

Russia’s Response to the US Request Requires Caution

by Gevorg Mirzayan via: https://vz.ru/world/2025/3/7/1318799.html

“This is evidence of a general warming of relations between Moscow and Washington.” With these words, experts assess reports that Washington has asked Moscow to mediate in negotiations with Iran. Such mediation opens up both opportunities and dangers for Russia. What is this about?

The United States needs Russian help in normalizing relations with Iran. This is reported by the American publication, Bloomberg. According to its sources, Donald Trump voiced the relevant request during his talks with Vladimir Putin on February 12, and then US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed it at their meeting in Saudi Arabia.

The logic of the American side is clear. Despite Trump’s dislike of Iranians, he has no time for conflict with the Islamic Republic right now – there is neither time, energy, nor desire for this. “For the Trump administration, any reduction in tensions with … Iran could be a victory, as it would not have to focus on the Middle East,” writes The Jerusalem Post.

On the other hand, the United States cannot let the situation with Iran take its course either. After the failure in Syria, the Iranians feel vulnerable – and, according to Western media, they are accelerating the process of creating a nuclear bomb as their ultimate weapon of defense.

At the same time, there is now a unique chance to resolve all the problems peacefully, partly because Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is also a proponent of a diplomatic solution to the conflict. And the defeat in Syria, multiplied by the economic crisis in the country, allows him and his supporters to “sell” a compromise with the United States as the best solution to all problems.

It is clear that Washington and Teheran cannot speak directly, which means that an intermediary is needed. Influential and at the same time honest, whose word is trusted by both sides. That is, Russia.

“The United States understands that negotiations with Iran will be difficult, and therefore, not wanting to greatly increase the number of intermediaries, they turned to Russia.”

“They took into account Moscow’s good relations with Teheran, as well as Russia’s proven ability to manoeuvre between various players,” says Yelena Suponina, an international political scientist and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.

Yelena Suponina speaking (in Arabic) at the Emirates Policy Centre.

Moscow neither confirms nor denies the American request for cooperation. “I cannot confirm, but I said that, in general, Putin has repeatedly said that the problem of the Iranian nuclear dossier should be solved exclusively by peaceful means. Russia, being an ally and partner of Iran, is ready to do everything possible to facilitate this process,” said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president.

[Russia wants] to contribute not only because it is beneficial to an ally, but also because Russia does not need a war in the Middle East, nor nuclear proliferation, which will increase if Teheran gets a nuclear bomb. And finally, to contribute because it is beneficial to Russia. Such mediation enhances its role in the Middle East, and also makes it an important and necessary partner for Washington.

However, we must not forget about the risks of such mediation. “This proposal is evidence of the general warming of relations between Moscow and Washington, but such proposals should be treated very carefully,” adds Suponina.

“Firstly, because the level of distrust between the parties is enormous. And it’s not just about Iranian-American relations. Washington – and this is not surprising after so many years of conflict – does not trust Moscow either. But trust in an intermediary is a key condition for successful negotiations. Moscow is also not sure that Washington will comply with the agreements reached under its leadership.”

“Secondly, there is an unstable domestic political situation in both countries. Donald Trump has actually declared war on a significant part of the American foreign policy establishment, and it is far from certain that he will win it. The Iranian leadership is also split, including into supporters and opponents of negotiations with the Americans. And not only with the Americans, but also personally with Trump, the man who withdrew from the previous peace deal (concluded under Barack Obama), and also ordered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, the most popular figure on the Iranian street.”

“At the same time, the serious state of health of the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei creates additional uncertainty – no one knows who will be chosen as the successor and what policy position this successor will take. And this uncertainty, both in the United States and in Iran, does not allow us to enter into any serious, long–term deals right now.”

“Thirdly, the position of the key American allies in the region, the Israelis, cannot be ignored. “Israel has a very negative attitude towards the idea of peace talks with Iran. And Trump himself is unpredictable. Therefore, it is possible that if the negotiations break down at some stage, he will take into account Benjamin Netanyahu’s idea of forceful solutions to the Iranian issue,” says Suponina.

Finally, Iran’s skepticism about the warming of Russian-American relations should be taken into account.

A number of politicians and experts in Teheran believe that Russia, in exchange for concessions from the United States, will be able to distance itself from allied relations with Iran. And neither the recently signed strategic agreement, nor the statements of the Russian leadership, nor elementary common sense (dictating that no one should change a strategic partner for American promises) can convince them. And Russia’s attempts to mediate, as well as generally discuss the Iranian issue in negotiations with the Americans, may strengthen these suspicions and, therefore, harm bilateral relations.

At the same time, there are always risks – they are the flip side of opportunities. And Russian diplomacy has repeatedly proven its ability to sail safely between the reefs of world politics.

Russia Doesn’t Believe in Carrots or Sticks – It Believes in Time 

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by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with

President Donald Trump has asked President Vladimir Putin to assist him in arranging a grand Middle East peace deal. This, according to officials leaking to Bloomberg reporters, requires Iran to agree to dismantle its nuclear weapons programme, and also “Iran’s support for its allied groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East.”

The leakers, “people with knowledge of the situation, asking not to be identified”, according to Bloomberg, reportedly did not ask Putin to mediate the restoration of the Pahlavi monarchy.

The news agency story follows by three weeks the White House announcement on February 4 of “a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad. The NSPM establishes that: Iran should be denied a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles; Iran’s terrorist network should be neutralized; and Iran’s aggressive development of missiles, as well as other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities, should be countered. The NSPM directs the Secretary of the Treasury to impose maximum economic pressure on the Government of Iran, including by sanctioning or imposing enforcement mechanisms on those acting in violation of existing sanctions.”

The US officials briefing Bloomberg claim that after his big stick move, Trump made two small carrot moves in the direction of the Russians. On February 12, Trump told Putin on the telephone that he had a deal to end the war in the Ukraine if Putin would help with a deal to end Iran’s war in the Middle East.

Trump then told Secretary of State Marco Rubio to say more when he met in Riyadh with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on February 18. Whatever the Americans say they said, Lavrov omitted to mention it in the communiqué and press briefing in Riyadh.

During his subsequent meetings in Teheran on February 25, Lavrov was explicit – almost — in opposing Trump’s stick-wielding. “We underscored the inadmissibility of unilateral economic sanctions,” Lavrov announced after meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “We will continue substantive and focused efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of these unlawful restrictions on the economies of Russia and Iran…We have discussed at length the developments around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. We remain convinced that the diplomatic resource is still there and should not be left unused. Instead, it should be engaged as effectively as possible and no threats or allusions to forceful solutions should be made. We are committed to continuing the search for acceptable solutions to the situation at hand which was created by our Western colleagues, not Iran.”

Since the refusal of Kremlin support for Iran’s military alliance with Bashar al-Assad’s government in Damascus last November and December, the subsequent recriminations between Teheran and Moscow have not been entirely or clearly resolved. For the record of the recriminations, click; for the attempt to resolve them in the January treaty signing, read this; for the continuing irresolution, look again.

On Friday, March 7, Trump said he believes Putin will do more for Trump’s Ukraine “deal” than the Kremlin is admitting publicly. “I think he’s going to be more generous than he has to be, and that’s pretty good.” Is this true? Is it an American attempt to sow suspicion and distrust in Moscow between the General Staff and the Kremlin? Is it also aimed at splitting the Iranians from the Russians?

Lavrov’s announcement after his meeting with President Pezeshkian was non-committal on the concessions Trump wants from Iran for denuclearization and withdrawal of support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and Ansar Allah (Houthis). “During the exchange of views on pressing global and regional issues, the focus was placed on the evolving situations in Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, and matters pertaining to the Caspian region. The sides coordinated their positions regarding the state of affairs surrounding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear programme,” the Russian communiqué announced after Lavrov met with Pezeshkian.

“Coordination” is a camouflage term in the current Russian-Iranian relationship. It appears 71 times in the January pact Pezeshkian signed in Moscow with Putin. Its meaning, Russian sources believe, carries outer ambiguity, inner secrecy – also uncertainty under the pressure Trump is applying.

A Russian source in a position to know believes the strategic consensus in Moscow, and also at the Ukraine front, is that “the empire [US] won’t stop its war with Russia. But we need time to correct the tactical mistakes that have been made. Trump’s peace is going to be short-lived. Maybe five years, maybe eight. There’s no point fighting him at every step. We’ll try to get the best deal possible that leaves him thinking he looks good. After losing eight years, Russia wants to gain eight years.”

A military source comments that in the short run the more confusion Trump and his officials create, the more time the Russian General Staff has to accelerate the military offensive westward from the current line of contact towards Kiev. “The American learning disability is showing across the board,” he says. “The kettle is now on the boil in Sumy. The Ukrainians are cut off in Kursk and don’t have much more time left. East of the Dnieper, it’s apparent that Putin’s foot is off the brake.”

The US side is now calling time. National Security Advisor Michael Waltz has announced that he, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Steven Witkoff will return for negotiations with their Russian counterparts in Riyadh next week. The Kiev regime has announced they will be meeting the US delegation on Tuesday.

As Russians report, analyse, and debate the implications of policy-making by press release and tweet from Trump and his officials, Moscow sources acknowledge what physicists have long recognized as the Observer Effect. The closer the observer and his methodology get to the object or target, the more disturbance is created, the less clear the object’s visibility, and the more unpredictability of how it will behave.

This is intentional on Trump’s part, the sources believe – it’s his idea of how to conduct deal-making. Uncertainty and confusion are also the condition in which Trump’s officials find themselves, competing with each other for factional policy positions, influence at the White House, and personal power. For the time being, the Russian response to Trump’s Ukraine end-of-war deal and also his Iran and Middle East end-of-war deal is – the sources emphasize — to delay, wait and see.

Responding to the Bloomberg report, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “”Russia believes that the United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations” and that Moscow “is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this.”

The Iranian response has been similar. “Given the significance of these matters, it’s possible that many parties will show good will and readiness to help with various problems,” Bloomberg reported the Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, as saying during a press conference in Teheran on March 3. “From this perspective, it’s natural that countries will present an offer of help if it’s needed.” Baghaei refused to speak directly with Bloomberg.

In preparing for the coming round of Riyadh talks, the Russian positions on terms for the Ukraine settlement are clearer than the US terms. It is quite the opposite for the terms of the Iranian settlement – the US is clearer than Russia.

To understand how officials in Moscow are thinking, the state-funded internet publication Vzglyad is both a sounding board for different policy factions around the Kremlin and a windvane of the direction Putin is expected to take. Interpreting this new report, published on Friday afternoon, it is necessary to read between the lines where the meaning is reversed.


Source: https://vz.ru/world/2025/3/7/1318799.html

Digital ID is Coming to MAGA World

For those who read this note: a new, more dividing iron curtain is being implemented among blocks of nations in matters of travel as well as communication, as we speak. For the last few days, Telegram has been requiring photo ID for a simple login to your account, if you made the mistake of login out. This is the beginning of the Digital ID worldwide. This is part of the new serfdom system in the modern world.

Soon, no one will have access to their Telegram account without a photo ID. The crackdown on the free information space is proceeding apace. Warn your close friends before it is too late.

At the same time, visa requirements and visa valid dates limits in visiting among various countries within the western world itself are reduced to 90 days, 30 days every 180 days, etc. etc. The ultimate goal is total dismantling of the globalized world and the reintroduced regime of Bantustans, small enclaves of isolated communities.

You can take note of what is happening in Gaza and now in Syria and think about your options. The Syrian model is coming home to all of us. Men with guns will be the new normal in the new MAGA world. Make All Gangs Act.

Anti-Imperialism Isn’t Trump Derangement Syndrome

by John Helmer via https://johnhelmer.org/anti-imperialism-isnt-trump-derangement-syndrome/#more-71770
Excerpt
[ . . . ]
Finally, as discussed in the podcast, here is the evidence from dozens of US opinion polls that Trump’s claims about American voter support are false. In his speech to Congress, the President said “for the first time in modern history, more Americans believe that our country is headed in the right direction than the wrong direction. In fact, it’s an astonishing record: 27-point swing, the most ever.”

The week before, the White House Press Office published the headline claim of “massive support for President Trump and his agenda”. In point of fact, the poll revealed that on the question of whether the country is moving in the right direction or not, despite the improvement on the positive side since the end of the Biden Administration, the majority of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction, 48% to 42%. Black Americans were significantly more pessimistic; 59% said the wrong direction.
[ . . . ]
A closer look at the February 19-20 panel interview poll cited by the White House also reveals strong voters majorities opposed to Trump’s line on negotiating peace with Russia. One of the reasons, the poll identifies, is that most Americans still believe Russia is expansionist and will move into other countries unless restrained by US forces.
[. . . ]
Compilations of this and 36 other national polls by Realclearpolitics.com, reporting as recently as March 2, reveal that since the Inauguration, public disapproval of Trump’s performance has been growing, and approval shrinking until this week there is just 1.3% between them. The Harvard Harris poll cited by the White House was the second most favourable to Trump of all 37 polls reporting.
[. . . ]
When the direction of the country, right or wrong, was questioned by the pollsters, the average of the poll results as of March 2 was a negative spread of 9%; that’s to say, 51.4% believe the country under Trump is going in the wrong direction, while 41.4% believe it is going in the right direction.
[. . .]
Trump’s negative job approval rating after his first month in office contrasts with Biden’s positive job approval for his first seven months. President Barack Obama’s job approval remained positive for the first 18 months of his term. “We’ve done more in two weeks than Obama and Biden!” Trump said in February. The majority of US voters don’t believe him.

Click to listen to the discussion.