Category Archives: Saving Ukrainians from Themselves

War in Ukraine

Ukraine Expands Its Cannon Fodder at Gunpoint

The utter desperation is evident in Ukraine and in the West.

Ukraine is toast.

Here is more.

Mobilization in Cherkasy.

The residents of Lvov report in social networks that the city is practically under a blockade. The police and military have blocked all exit roads, checking every vehicle that leaves the village.

The law enforcers are looking for men of conscription age. If such are found, they turn the vehicle back.

“They stop every car to hand over the summons,” noted one of the residents of Lvov in Telegram.

Journalist Ruslan Ostashko noted that the mobilization of Lvov residents is a great gift for Poland. When the time comes to take over Western Ukraine, the Poles will not meet any resistance.

Violent Collection of Cannon Fodder

Violent collection of cannon fodder in the Kirovograd region. Volunteers have long ended, there are only such ways to replenish the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The increasing pace and depth of conscription intakes (l iterally old men and cripples now) combined with the collapsing situation on the front lends credence to all the reports since December of just how bad casualty rates have become for the AFU. This shouldn’t be a surprise though for those who have being keeping a keen eye on the situation.

It was recently reported in the Wall Street Journal that the AFU now fires just 40,000 shells a month. This is a stunning admission because the rate was previously 5,000-6,000 shells a day, or 150,000 a month; they changed the metric to attempt to hide this fact. The RuF meanwhile has stayed consistent at around 20,000 shells a day since late Summer.

This means the Russian firepower advantage has increased from around 3:1 to an almost 19:1 rate. Add in the mobilization resolving manpower difficulties, and it’s clear why Russian successes have been developing in quick succession lately.

The battle on the Svatovo-Kremennaya front does not subside: APU officers are being taken in droves to hospitals and in black bags to morgues.

Ukraine, Forced “Mobilization” Heats Up

Forced mobilization in Ukraine: people of all ages are grabbed on the streets, without a summons, to be thrown to the slaughter under the tanks of the Russian army

Kyiv is trying to collect as much cannon fodder as possible against the backdrop of the success of the Russian army, leading the offensive on half the front.


War Update: Russian Offensive and Western Tanks

by Aleks via bmanalysis

Strategic planning

Basics

In the following I will try to point out my predictions, how the Russian strategic planning could potentially look like. Of course, we need to keep in mind that these are ONLY ASSUMPTIONS. It could turn out totally different as well.

Well, as I wrote in most of my analysis, the Russian goal is to trigger a collapse of Ukrainian logistics, manpower supply and thereby of the armed resistance. Keep in mind. The goal is the collapse. Not to conquer every single village throughout Ukraine with frontal assaults.

Due to the gift, that Ukraine is making Russia, to not only fighting to defend every inch in Donbass, but also trying to recapture territories, Russia can fulfill its task on a huge degree solely in the eastern regions.

The Ukrainian manpower reserves are not unlimited and they are slowly but steadily reaching their end. By forcing the enemy to fight in the Donbass, Russia makes sure, that the enemy manpower gets drawn out of all the other important big cities. Like Kharkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Nikolayev, Kherson, Odessa etc. etc.

In turn, this means, that there is a high probability, that the Russians won’t need to fight in these cities as soon as the Ukrainian army collapses.

Map

In the following I’ve created a map with five potential war theaters. I will go through all five and describe my thoughts about them.

 

Theatre 1: Artemovsk-Soledar-Seversk

Hence, Surovikin’s withdrawals, evening-out of the frontlines and the creation of a perfect firebag to destroy the enemy manpower. Artemovsk (Bakhmut). It is the most unfavourable place for Ukraine to fight. And still, Ukraine tries to defend it with everything it has, for political reasons. Otherwise, the Western public support break. Russia has short supply lines, air superiority, a friendly population and favourable positions for shelling there. One could say that the Ukrainian army is being buried in Artemovsk. There are already tens of thousands of dead and perhaps the double number of wounded. One needs to keep in mind that wounded soldiers are an even larger burden to a nation then the dead, during the time of war.

From my point of view, and as described in former analysis, Russia could have taken Artemovsk before. But there is a certain time, when it needs to be taken, to keep the stone rolling. The Russian reserves are being currently prepared for the offensive. Artemovsk mustn’t fall, before they are ready. Moreover, Artemovsk needs to kill as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible before the offensive starts. Which means in turn, that it doesn’t make any sense to take it, as long as the enemy is able to feed in troops. When the enemy starts having problems to feed in further troops, by drawing them from other important frontlines, then Ukraine is ready for the other offensive operations.

So, the requirements, that are needed to trigger the storming of Artemovsk are:

  1. Waiting for the stream pushed in troops to end.
  2. The other offensive formations of the Russian army need to be in place.

I assume this moment could be reached in February. When exactly? I don’t know. We will see.

Theatre 2: Izyum-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk

As soon as these offensive starts, I assume, that the Ukrainian defences will start to collapse, since most Ukrainian troops will be already dead or wounded. At this point the Russian army will most likely move in from Kupiansk to Izyum from the north and occupy favourable positions north and maybe even west of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

Depending on the state of resistance of the Ukrainian army there will either be a direct storming from the Artemovsk and Slovyansk grouping of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk or there will be a siege. There is no need to sacrifice troops for quick wins, since there will be more fronts, to trigger the Ukrainian collapse.

Theatre 3

Maybe simultaneously there will be a push to Ugledar and the surrounding villages from the south, to put additional pressure on the Ukrainian supply lines. Both, in material and people.

Theatre 4

As you see in my map, the theater “4” is a pretty long one.

For the time being, as I write this article, I don’t see any physical possibility, to conduct any large-scale offensive from Belarus into Ukraine. There are neither enough equipment nor the needed logistics in place. So, big arrows from Belarus are currently physically impossible.

What I assume indeed, is the following. We will see locally, not everywhere where I put a number 4 on it, but at certain places (I don’t know where) small incursions, to pin and bind the enemy at the close proximity of the border. To engage as many as possible troops, equipment and logistical effort in the north. At the same time, I assume, that we could start experiencing the start of a Russian air campaign on targets across the northern border of Ukraine. Since most air defences are currently concentrated around the critical infrastructure or already depleted, we will most likely see the new role of General Surovikin. Hammering and degrading Ukrainian resources in the north. And Ukraine will need to replace them constantly, to not open the door to Kiev.

At the same time, we could maybe see the accumulation of troops and equipment in Belarus.

This could go on maybe until the start of the summer 2023.

Here we have the same situation as in Artemovsk. As soon as the supply of troops and equipment starts ebbing down in the north, Russia can assume, that the time can be right to secure Kiev.

Requirements for a move on Kiev:

  • Complete collapse of the Donbass front.
  • Complete Collapse of the northern front.

Depending on how the political situation will be then, we could see here already a full surrender or only the moving in of Russian troops to a close proximity of Kiev. Maybe even already the start of the surrounding of Kiev.

Theatre 5

Either simultaneously with Theatre 4 or after the moving on Kiev (surrounding or prepositioning north, west and east of Kiev), we could see the opening of a fifth frontline in the south. The target would be to reach Zaporozhye city. Again, with the goal, to overstretch the Ukrainian resources and logistics.

Outlook

Again, I’m sure, Russia’s goal is to trigger a collapse, to not being forced to fight for every village up to Lvov. After these five “phases” or theaters, I assume, that we will see the collapse of Ukraine. Which will either result in a surrender, or we could simply see a drive-through of Russian forces to their desired future borders by bypassing last resistance nests. Which will need to surrender anyways after a certain time, when they get encircled far behind NATO borders.

By applying this strategy, Russia can inflict maximum damage to the Ukrainian army while sparing the own soldiers lives and the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure of big Russian cities (Odessa etc.). Which the ultimate Russian goal is.

Depending on the degree of resistance and Western escalation, we could see a surrender of Kiev the earliest in Summer 2023. The latest? This is impossible to say. If Russia needs to drive through Ukraine, encircling big cities and force them without violence to surrender, this could drag on for another two years. Who knows? And of course, there is still the question of manpower. As in my analysis of phase 3 described, Russia would need to mobilise further troops, if being forced to take Ukraine without their surrender. Not for the fighting itself, but simply for occupation and securing rear areas (counter insurgency etc.), of this large country.

Arms deliveries and Scorched Earth

There are ever more reports of deliveries of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as artillery to Ukraine by NATO. Of course, there are.

Of course, we will go through all escalation steps in terms of arms deliveries, until this war concludes.

The West is following a strategy of scorched earth in Ukraine. It is absolutely clear to everyone, that it is only a question of time, when Ukraine will fall as a whole. All are aware that this will most likely happen this year. So, the task is, to inflict as much comprehensive and sustainable damage to Russia as possible during the process. With a huge success of course. See my article about that here.

Ukraine, or the biggest parts of it, will be part of Russia again. Some parts might go to Poland, Hungary and Romania by agreement with Russia. And some part will maybe be released into pseudo independence after being denazifyed and demilitarised. But in fact, Russia is killing currently “en mass” its future citizens and the base for further development. Of course, the Ukrainian soldiers of today will be Russian soldiers of tomorrow, as well. And as more infrastructure is damaged as more Russia will need to invest to rebuild. At least in parts, that will go to Russia.

Therefore, it needs to be ensured, by NATO, that the whole male able-bodied potential will be used, to fight Russia. In the best case everyone dies. Remember, these are future Russian citizens and soldiers. That’s why the West will never ever negotiate an end. Russia by the way won’t do it as well, since all of Ukraine will be captured, denazifyed and demilitarised. Except maybe the parts, that will go to other states under a mutual agreement.

Well, as far as I am aware off, Ukraine ran out of heavy weapons. And it won’t be able to further keep up the fight, without heavy weapons. First, physically, second morally. If the Ukrainians could only throw their bodies against Russian tanks, then there would be a mass surrender.

One would think, these western supplied tanks will be needed for offensive operations. But no-one thinks about offensives anymore. It is more, to preposition these tanks etc. on positions, where Russian offensives will be expected. To prepare ambushes and fire traps for the incoming Russian troops. Similar to what happened in phase 1. The West will supply in any phase, as long as human potential exists, to react to the challenges of the given time/phase/theater.

Conclusion

As of now, Ukraine lost the war. I would say, the day the defensive line in Soledar breached and the new command structure was announced, is the day, Ukraine lost the war officially. Now we need to go through the mop up, which will bring, unfortunately for both sides, horrendous losses in human lives and equipment.

Unfortunately, fascist regimes, or their non-fascist backers tend to sacrifice their whole population before the world can back peace. It was like that in World War 2, and now we have the same shit over again.

Who are the Warmongers? A Video from Ukraine

Must see. It is the 1930s, all over again. Same clique in Ukraine as behind Germany’s suicidal war. Same style.

Who are these people? One hint: look at the ethnic composition of the government. And what’s gonna happen? Same as the defeat of Germany.  But hopefully, more this time. The defeat of the sponsors of the carnage.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Russia knows it, no fooling around this time. The world knows it too.

Russia Has Broken Through Donbass’s Second Line of Defense

Russia has broken through Donbass’s second line of defense – military expert Leonkov

“Soledar was part of the so-called second line of defense, which Ukraine had been building for eight years on the territory of the DNR. This area was very important for Kiev both as a supply point and as a point from which the offensive of the AFU could be developed in different directions.

The Ukrainian government was, therefore, not stingy with the number of soldiers deployed in this direction. According to surrendered Ukrainian service members, during the storming of Soledar, AFU and National Guard units lost almost 16-17 battalions. Taking into account a large number of seriously wounded and missing persons, the total losses of the AFU in Soledar since the beginning of autumn 2022 may amount to about 20-25,000 people, RT reports. When the Russian troops clean up the city’s salt mines, we will probably see a situation similar to Mariupol and Azovstal: Russian servicemen found many hidden bodies of militants under the ground,” the expert said.

Currently, the Kiev authorities are trying to downplay the importance of Soledar in the strategic importance of the AFU defense in Donbas somehow to stop the decadent mood in the public opinion.

Aid to “Ukraine,” How Much is Too Much?

The volume of Western military aid to Ukraine since the start of the special operation is almost equal to the defense budget of the Russian Federation.

Foreign countries and international organizations have provided aid to Kiev totaling more than $150.8 billion since the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. Almost one third, $48.5 billion, went to Ukrainian military needs, according to calculations by many agencies based on official statements by the authorities of donor states and media data.

Thus, the total volume of Western aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the special operation exceeded Ukraine’s budget for 2022 ($55.5 billion) by $95.3 billion(almost 2.7-2.8 times) And military aid to Kiev alone already accounts for about 95% of Russia’s defense spending last year ($51.1bn).

But one cannot say a word of truth about the Ukrainians invading Europe.

Scandal in Switzerland. The head of the department of social services and health of the Swiss canton of Lucerne, Guido Graf, is accused of racism because of Ukrainian refugees, and he himself continues to stick to his statements, despite the condemnation.

Graf said that Ukrainian refugees in some cases behave more demandingly than other repatriates, and “first wave refugees” are often not the most needy people, writes Luzerner Zeitung.

In an interview with Blick, he also reproached the refugees for driving SUVs around Switzerland while receiving social assistance.

After that, Graf began to be accused of racism.

The director of health, however, did not retract his words, according to the Luzerner Zeitung, he said that the refugees even demanded Botox injections as part of the medical provision.

Meanwhile. . . .


Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov believes that no more than 15 percent of the Western arms supplied to Ukraine will reach the air defense zone.

The head of Chechnya called Western aid to Ukraine a money-laundering scheme. Kadyrov stressed that he is convinced that he is right and believes that all the huge Western military supplies to Ukraine are only the result of a trivial money-laundering fraud scheme.

“I see that some people are watching because of foreign aid in Ukraine. Don’t worry! This is a working money laundering scheme by Ukraine’s Western officials and no more than 15% of the total support reaches the trenches.”

Ukraine Again – Debt Payments this Year

Ukraine will have to pay 17.8 billion dollars of the national debt in 2023.

14.6 billion will be used for servicing and repayment of the state’s internal debt and 3.3 billion dollars must be transferred by Kiev for the servicing and repayment of the state’s foreign debt. The peak of payments is expected in May—2.78 billion dollars.

More News on Possible US Folding in Ukraine

See this: Is Korean Scenario Possible in Ukraine?

Newly elected US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reportedly won over the final few votes needed to secure the gavel by promising conservative lawmakers that he will help pass legislation that would limit future economic and military aid to Ukraine.

The Kiev compromise was one of the key concessions that McCarthy, a California Republican, accepted to win over recalcitrant colleagues who had opposed his election as speaker, the UK’s Telegraph newspaper reported on Saturday. Republicans won back control of Congress in November’s midterm elections, but it took five days and 15 rounds of voting for speaker – the most since 1860 – to reach enough consensus on who will shepherd the party’s legislative agenda.

Since Russia began its military offensive against Ukraine last February, Congress has approved $100 billion in US aid to Ukraine – much to the chagrin of ‘Freedom Caucus’lawmakers, such as Republicans Matt Gaetz (Florida) and Lauren Boebert (Colorado). Gaetz led a group of about 20 representatives in opposing McCarthy’s election, at one point nominating former President Donald Trump for the job.

After McCarthy failed to win enough support from fellow Republicans in the first three rounds of voting on Tuesday, Gaetz said, “Today the House didn’t organize. Biggest loser: [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky. Biggest winner: US Taxpayers.” He had opposed previous aid requests for Kiev, including a $45-billion package approved last month, saying, “Hemorrhaging billions in taxpayer dollars for Ukraine while our country is in crisis is the definition of America last.”

McCarthy, who occasionally wears a Ukrainian flag pin on his lapel, also agreed to congressional rule changes, limits on defense spending and the creation of a committee to investigate “weaponization” of the federal government. In addition, conservatives won a pledge to allow votes on several of their top issues, including border security, congressional term limits and a balanced budget amendment. The new speaker agreed to give Freedom Caucus members key seats on House committees.

Among those panels is the House Rules Committee. As the Telegraph noted, giving Freedom Caucus members leadership roles on the Rules Committee could create “immense hurdles” to passage of additional aid packages for Ukraine.