The US has a $6 Trillion Problem over the Next Twelve Months

by James Hickman via Schiff Sovereign

Yesterday the Treasury Department announced that they expected to increase the national debt by a whopping $760 billion this quarter alone… and another $202 billion next quarter.

In short that means almost $1 trillion added to the national debt just in the first half of this year. And, again, these are the Treasury Department’s own estimates.

Obviously, that’s a pretty horrible result; even a senior Treasury official acknowledged that they have “significantly increased” their bond sales and the national debt. Not that they’re doing anything to stop the trend.

But there’s an even greater risk that the Treasury Department faces this year that is hardly being discussed anywhere.

Over the next twelve months, more than $6 trillion in existing US government debt is set to mature… and will need to be paid back somehow.

So, to give you an example, back in 2014, the federal government issued $264 billion in 10-year Treasury notes.

Well, it’s now 2024, i.e. ten years later. Meaning that $264 billion worth of 10-year notes issued in 2014 will become due and payable this year.

In 2017, they issued $368.8 billion worth of 7-year notes. And those 7-year notes issued in 2017 are due and payable this year.

You get the idea. The point is that the total sum of Treasury Bonds, Notes, and Bills outstanding that will become due and payable this year exceeds $6 trillion.

So, in ADDITION to the $1 trillion in NEW debt that they’re forecasting just in the first six months of 2024, the Treasury Department is also going to have to pay back $6 trillion of existing debt.

Naturally the Treasury Department doesn’t have $6 trillion lying around to pay back its bondholders. So instead of paying anyone back, they just borrow new money to repay the old money.

Now, this doesn’t actually increase the national debt. If they borrow $6 trillion in new bonds, but then pay back $6 trillion in old bonds, the net change to the debt is ZERO.

So, what’s the problem?

The problem is that interest rates are MUCH higher than they were 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years ago when those old bonds were first issued.

In 2021, for example, the Treasury Department issued almost $1 trillion in 3-year bonds back when interest rates were nearly 0%.

But since those 3-year bonds from 2021 are due and payable this year, the Treasury Department will have to borrow new money at today’s interest rates… which are hovering around FOUR percent.

And higher interest rates mean that the government’s annual interest bill will soar.

Think about it like this– $6+ trillion of existing debt needs to be refinanced. And given how much higher interest rates are, this will likely cost the government more than $200 billion per year in additional interest payments.

PLUS, they’re expecting $1 trillion of new debt in the first six months of the year, plus probably another $1 trillion in the second half of the year.

Altogether, the government’s total interest bill could easily increase by more than $300 billion per year in 2024.

And this same trend will continue in 2025, 2026, and beyond.

Right now, gross interest on the debt is already roughly $1 trillion per year. But in three years’ time, annual interest could surpass $2 trillion annually. And in 10 years, annual interest could reach $4 to $5 trillion.

Anyone who thinks this isn’t an obvious, catastrophic problem in the making (which demands immediate attention) needs to have his/her head examined.

And yet the government is full of people who shake hands with thin air and happily ignore the present and future carnage that they’re creating.

Don’t hold your breath for the Inspired Idiots in charge to fix this; I’ve written before that there is a VERY narrow window of opportunity to solve this problem… but they’re doing absolutely nothing about it.

But that doesn’t mean that you or I have to be held hostage by their incompetence.

I’ve argued that one of the highly probable consequences of this mess will be SIGNIFICANT inflation. After all, most likely it will be the Federal Reserve that facilitates all this new debt.

This is what the Fed has done for most of the past 15 years. Just look at the huge run-up in the national debt between 2020 and 2022; over 80% of that money (~$5 trillion) came from the Federal Reserve.

And if creating $5 trillion in new money resulted in 9% inflation, how much inflation will we see if the Fed creates $15 to $20 trillion of new money? No one knows for sure, but it probably won’t be 2%.

But if we can make such a strong argument for inflation… and anticipate a steep rise in prices over the next 5-10 years, there’s no reason why we can’t take steps NOW to reduce the impact of future inflation, or even benefit from it.

This doesn’t even necessarily require a lot of capital. For example, one could invest in long-term options on certain assets (including gold or silver futures), so that a small amount of money could pay out very large returns down the road.

The key point is that there are plenty of sensible ways to plan for future inflation, which we will continue to discuss in future letters.

But this isn’t even Plan B thinking anymore. Anticipating inflation should be Plan A.

Is Hungary’s Orban Really that Much of an Anti-West Maverick?

By Timofey Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club

When you read in the Financial Times (or FT to its friends) that the EU wants to destroy Hungary’s economy because of its “recalcitrance,” you should always bear in mind that this is a UK-based newspaper and that the political aim of the publication is to create internal contradictions in the EU after its home country’s exit.

Accordingly, the information given to the newspaper by British officials is primarily aimed at manipulating journalists to create stories that will create additional controversies within the EU and worsen the situation of Germany and France. This is the first thing we have to understand when we talk about political war propaganda.

Secondly, Hungary’s relations with officials in Brussels and the main countries of the bloc are not easy, but they are not linear either. If they were, the Budapest government would long ago have come under more serious pressure, first from Germany, then from France, then from Austria. Together they could have influenced the investment climate in Hungary if they had wanted to. But judging by all their actions, they don’t want to, and there are no examples to the contrary.

Brussels alone will not do anything that Berlin and Paris do not want to do. Indeed, come to think of it, if what FT wrote is true, it is a first in the history of any union – killing a member state to give money to a non-member? It’s completely un-European, somehow.

The Hungarians themselves have a normal, balanced attitude towards the EU. They are positive on economic issues – such as the common market, for example. Another thing is that Budapest knows that it can’t dictate overall bloc policy, and they accept this.

On the issue of aid to Ukraine, the Hungarians will stick to their line, as they have been doing for two years, and they have no reason to change anything here. After all, when it comes to fundamental issues, Orban can go for a coffee during the vote and then complain that the others voted without him. Remember, this has happened before.

Also, remember this, when we read FT’s articles on Russia, we know that they are mostly untrue. So why would Hungary and Germany be treated much better? They are also ultimately London’s opponents.

This article was first published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper, translated and edited by the RT team

Now You Understand, the US IS a Nut Case

Sen. Tom Cotton: “Have you ever been a member of the Chinese Communist Party?”

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew: “Senator, I’m Singaporean. No.”

Cotton: “Have you ever been associated or affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party?”

Chew: “No, senator. Again, I’m Singaporean.”

Tom Cotton; Graduate of the Liz Truss School of Geography

Yes, the US is doomed, run by a demented elite and supported by voters just as lunatic in a sort of mass pathological narcissistic psychosis.

‘G’ for Genocide, That is Israeli Genocide

BREAKING: Over 30 bodies, executed at point blank range with their hands tied to the back, have been discovered inside a school yard in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza, following the Israeli military’s partial withdrawal from the area.

Genocide!

“This is precisely why Israel was taken to the International Court of Justice”

Yes … they historically got away with it and thoght it’s possible now as well.

6 In 10 Americans Live ‘Paycheck To Paycheck’

by OAN’s Elizabeth Volberding

While Wall Street is setting records, those on Main Street claim to be barely scraping by. Many citizens even maintain that they are “living paycheck to paycheck,” according to the latest Issues and Insights/TIPP Poll.

According to an Issues and Insights/TIPP (I&I/TIPP) Poll that was released on Wednesday morning, 64%, or two-thirds of American voters, stated that they are “living paycheck to paycheck.”

I&I/TIPP is known for reporting “timely, unique, and informative data” every month regarding a wide range of topics that interest the general public, according to their website.

In the most recent I&I/TIPP Poll, which was conducted from January 3rd through January 5th of this year, among 1,401 registered voters, representing nearly two-thirds of Americans, stated that they are “living ‘paycheck to paycheck’ these days,” despite the fact that the United States is still considered to be a wealthier nation in comparison to other countries.

The margin of error for the poll was +/-2.6 percentage points.

Democrat politicians appear befuddled by the overall disregard for what they perceive to be “Bidenomics’ achievements” regarding the economy. However, Americans are still facing extreme financial hardships, even if the economy has recovered slightly since the COVID-19 era.

The surprising outcome comes at a time when many politicians and members of Wall Street are praising new data that claims strong growth in the fourth quarter, as well as a slowing rate of inflation.

However, in the poll, 63% of Democrats, 67% of Republicans, and 62% of Independents said that they are “barely getting by” with each paycheck they receive.

Additionally, 53% of poll-takers in the wealthiest income bracket, which include those who make at least “$75,000 or more” annually, also maintained that they struggle to make ends meet on a monthly basis. The wealthier earners blamed childcare, housing, food, travel, and entertainment expenses.

68% of American voters with lower incomes, defined as those earning less than $70,000 annually, also said that they were struggling to make ends meet. Nonetheless, that polling result was less surprising.

In terms of race, 62% of White Americans and 69% of Black and Hispanic Americans similarly admitted that they are facing “financial difficulty with each paycheck.”

The I&I/TIPP Poll posed an even more dire question, “How much money do you have in savings that you could use in an emergency?” in an effort to bring more attention to this issue.

Individual responses were used to group the answers, which were according to dollar value:

The following categories available were: “$0,” “less than $1000,” “1,000 to $4,999,” “5,000 to $9,999,” “10,000 to $19,999,” “20,000 to $49,999,” and “$50,000 or more.” An alternative response would be “prefer not to answer.”

As a result, the answer of this question was a worrisome 24% of all Americans who responded “$0.”

At the same time, 14% responded with less than $5,000, and 20% gave a response of less than $1,000. Of the respondents, 44% had less than $1,000 or had none at all. Even after accounting for the wealthiest citizens of the United States, the median savings amount was only around $1,586.

In conclusion, Americans seem to be unprepared for any sort of financial emergencies, at least in economic terms.

The data is shocking to many, especially considering the fact that politicians on both the right and left continue to tell U.S. citizens that “they’ve never had it so good,” which is far from the truth, according to economists.

“Experts, from the time I got elected, were insisting that a recession was just around the corner. Every month, there was going to be a recession,” President Joe Biden said on Saturday, chuckling as he mentioned the fourth quarter’s 3.3% GDP growth.

Due to this, Americans lack a safety net to shield them from sudden drops in the economy.

Is the Unification of Romania to Moldova Possible?

Ed. Note: Long predicted by Algora, a possible realignment of the Eastern European bloc with Russia is more in the cards than ever. There is an irony there, in that the long-held aspirations of Romanians to bring the sister nation of Moldova back to the motherland might occur, but in the reverse. It might be Romania who is “unifying” to the former Soviet Moldova. There are major repercussions for Europe and the world should Romania move into the Russian space, together with the Hungarian state realigning with Transcarpathia, or Poland moving into the arms of Galicia and Volhynia.

Buffeted by negative economic headwinds and with the political class increasingly reviled over issues such as the migrant crisis, the Post-1991 order in Europe appears to be in terminal decline. In this situation, the birth pangs of something new, but also familiar, can now be observed. Nationalism and genuine Rightist thought is returning to the European scene. 

This confirms the era-defining importance of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine in and of itself, but also allows us to speculate on what comes next. As far back as 2014, Russian politicians have advocated for Eastern European nations to join them in a partition of Ukraine and now this seems to be a reality made true. By territorial appeasement, Moscow now has the chance to deliver the death blow to the EU by splitting off its Eastern members. From there, in concert with each other, an alliance can be born, thus establishing a new security framework in Europe in opposition to the liberal one existing in Brussels.

Things are rapidly changing in the world, and this process will undoubtedly continue as the American-led order continues to crumble and decay.

via Rost Online


At a separate event organised by AUR in Iași (Romania), AUR co-founder Claudiu Târziu spoke to a closed audience made up of AUR members and supporters, in what has been called a ”hateful, revisionist speech” by mainstream media and the staunch supporters of the neoliberal American empire because Târziu laid claim to the territories lost by Romania to the USSR after WW2.

Here are the most important excerpts of his speech:

(…) 2024 represents a historic opportunity for the Romanian nation. It isn’t just an opportunity for a political party to gain power, but to achieve the ideal of the Romanian nation, that is to recover our sovereignty, sovereignty which was put in the hands of certain international organisations (…)

Even in these international organisations, Romania can adopt a position of dignity and can reaffirm its sovereignty through hard negotiation like the Hungarians or the Polish (…)

For us to regain our sovereignty we need an adequate mindset, and a strong economy that can afford to fund an army, the army being the number one symbol of a sovereign state. As long as we have an economy built on begging for money guaranteed by the treaties we’ve signed or begging foreigners to invest and develop our country, we cannot speak of independence and sovereignty. As long as we have a small and underequipped army, we cannot speak of independence and sovereignty. With a strong army, a resilient economy, we will be able to afford an independent foreign policy based on our national interests (…)

Lastly, we will not achieve sovereignty until we return to the natural borders of the Romanian state. Bessarabia must return to its motherland, northern Bucovina must not be forgotten, Herța and Transcarpathia (Marmația), all that belonged to Romania shall belong to us again. This is the ideal that we were born for.

Reunification won’t be possible with a lackluster diplomacy conducted by the servants currently in power, that have robbed Romania and sold it for scrap, the servants which you see running towards foreign embassies and foreign capitals to obtain the firman [Firman = an act of recognition signed with the seal of the Ottoman Sultan when Wallachia or Moldavia gained a new prince, the act being a guarantee of the stability of the new ruler which was at risk of being usurped], the approval of others to become presidents, prime-ministers, senate and deputy chamber presidents (…)

165 years later, our situation has improved slightly but not by much. We are a people with a great potential capable to dominate our neighbours. What is preventing us from reaching this potential? Our goal is to carve out a place for Romania among the powerful states of the globe, to make Romania respected, to make our opinions count, and we will start by winning all four elections in 2024 (…)

“At the time when the EU project was strongly influenced by globalist ideology, it began to pursue the creation of a continental superstate, in which national states would dissolve and democratic control would disappear. The globalist project wants the unification of humanity into a large maneuvering mass, consuming goods and services, which will not cause problems for the ruling class. For this, a kind of bureaucratic aristocracy is created.

There those who decide are not elected, but appoint each other. They are not noble by blood, they are noble by relationship. They are accountable to no one and abuse their status as senior EU officials. It is an attack on freedom after all. This is why we are against the United States of Europe. But all these shortcomings can be fixed. In the European Parliament there are also representatives of parties in government in some member states which support family, faith, national sovereignty and the right to freedom. I am referring to the PiS parties in Poland, FIDESZ in Hungary, which hold power in their countries, or Vox, which is about to come to power in Spain. Why wouldn’t we also have a political force that would defend Romania’s interest from healthy positions?”, senator Claudiu Târziu asked.

According to him, AUR will join the Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists, which is led by representatives of PiS, Vox and the Fratelli party in Italy.