via Пинта разумa
Joseph Biden confirmed the readiness of the United States to fight with China in the event of his attempt to regain control of Taiwan by force. That is, the United States twice confirms its military guarantees to the Taipei regime in less than a year (for the first time, immediately after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan).
Interestingly, Washington did not provide such guarantees to Ukraine, which was recognized as an independent state. But Taiwan, which the United States itself considers part of China and which the US does not recognize its sovereignty, is given guaranties. At first glance, this is some kind of a paradox.
But no, there is logic in such decisions. It’s just that the United States considers the Pacific basin (or even more broadly, the Indo-Pacific region) to be the main theater of the new geopolitical confrontation. Here, concessions to China, which is the main rival of the United States, are impossible in principle.
But the European direction is secondary. Therefore, here you can afford to not give Ukraine any guarantees. On the contrary, use its territory for a proxy war with another competitor – Russia. Along the way, solving the problem of weakening the ally/rival – the European Union. The task of reindustrialization of the United States at the expense of deindustrialization of the EU is now possible.
We can say this: the loss of Taiwan and the Chinese breakthrough into the open Pacific Ocean are perceived by the United States as a critical threat. As well as any strengthening of the PRC’s positions in the Pacific direction in general (hence the nervous reaction to China’s attempts to obtain military bases in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Kiribati).
As for Ukraine, its loss as an ally does not hurt American interests so much. Therefore, the United States deliberately sacrifices its ally without giving it guarantees. Taiwan, however, is a completely different story.
Well first of all. Ukraine, Afghanistan had common land borders access via friendly / allied nations. An ideal scenario of leading from behind, fighting a war of attrition.
Second Ukraine has no economic significance for USA as such. While Taiwan on other hand would collapse, the whole modern American society. We all know the importance of Taiwanese Semiconductor industry. People often forget that it is not Love of Taiwan and freedom of Taiwanese people and their human rights, but it is her Integral role or rather central role in global Semiconductor Manufacturing. Losing Taipei to China would mean death certain death and collapse of Tech based economy of us. Needless to even discuss the logistical and industrial collapse.
Thirdly. Taiwan is an Island country, which has no, whatsoever any motivation to fight a war with their own brethren. They can’t even throw Capitalism vs Commies argument anymore, as there is no other country more Capitalist than China in our modern history. Taiwan in military terms has no leverage. China wouldn’t even have to launch an invasion. A salvos of Ballistic missile and standoff missiles launched by Air and LACM from Surface warships could end global Semi Conductor industry. Though America is trying hard to shift production and manufacturing as fast as she could.
So, re-industrialization of US could fail even before it begins. China has very limited window of taking Taiwan with least possible cost. These are best times for China while combined West is busy destroying themselves in Ukraine, politically and militarily, China could use these chaotic times to bring Taiwan back. America and all her political, military and business institution are in disarray, they are keeping a strong face for a time being. If Beijing has any foresight, she should know that, Russia’s apologetic politics and behavior eventually failed to bring any sort of deal or compromise with Weest. Similarly China won’t be spared by Neo-Liberal Neo-Con-Jewish-Vultures like Soros and BHL. Soros has openly showed his helpless resentment against the failure of his Neo – Liberal dreams of owning China’s Financial and Corporate future. While Neo – Con Straussian gang have long been destroying the Non Integrating Core as per RAND Corp design on Behalf
We still don’t know who will win this actual war. As Russia and China are full of these intellectually exposed and compromised, pliant social elites, who act as cultural agents of Neo Liberal elites. We still have to see. Whether China would actually liberate herself from the past ghost of Century of Humiliation and set Chinese people to claim a Respect which they have long lost. Russia has at least picked up a gun, and first shots have been fired. Despite the Delay by Putin, despite all the delay tactics of 7 years, Hot Kinetic war became an eventuality, it was no more avoidable. If China wants Taiwan she must grow a pair of Chines Balls, beefed up with Tiger Bones medicine. Or else, we would curse them, for killing all those Tiger for nothing, if they can’t even grow a pair let alone make it of steel.
Fourth Industrial Rev is a Digital Coup de’tat against the Industrial economy. Without Semiconductor powerhouse such as Taiwan Western economies can’t do anything for long. Politically the divisions are also getting wider and deeper, Western societies can collapse sooner than later, if any Black Swan event happens, there would be an actual ‘Reset’ not the artificial, engineered one. In that scenario, Anglo Saxon world would be left with Japan and South Korea only. even Jewish Apartheid state have to look up to Russia to keep Iranians at bay from marching over Tel Aviv and Haifa, knowing that Russia is de facto Jewish Oligarchy ruled society, some kind of deal would be made between the parties. Any kind of deal would eventually mean, reverse migration to NY, Brazil, Argentina as Neo – Ottomans won’t take them back now.
As brother Sergei said, that 400 years old western dominance is no more viable. Turkey, Hungary, Iran, they all are ready, their Nations are ready. The biggest challenge is to put this ‘Karen’ of an empire tactfully without much of a damage.