Long War Ahead, The End is Not Near

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via https://t.me/Slavyangrad edited by Algora

Some or many won’t agree with my assessment, but I do believe that it is worth contemplating.

We are using the phrase “to the last Ukrainian” too often (and I wrote about that earlier). To emphasize and make an argument stronger, we always combine that with talk about their nonstop mobilization and now, also, with mobilizing those who are unfit for military service. If it’s followed by a video of the forceful recruiting methods, even better. For us. However, we tend to forget one crucial thing. In Artemovsk, many of those who fought for the AFU were territorial defense units, with little or no training. They were sent, along with better-trained and equipped troops, to try to hold the city. As a logical conclusion of their participation, they were mostly wiped out, or rendered ineffective due to the terrible losses sustained. No one contests that fact, because it’s true and well-known. Wagner did a good job. But you will remember that many are territorial defense units. Right? Let’s go forward. Only a few months later, the AFU attacked with heavy force in Zaporozhye, and recently in Donetsk. They still hold Marinka, Avdeevka, and Ugledar, and are only slowly retreating in the Kupiansk direction.

Those attacking in Zaporozhye & Donetsk are Western and domestically-trained troops, heavily armed, in significant amounts with Western weapons. I don’t want to reinvent the wheel and claim something, but Artemovsk was a delaying action, and was paid for dearly by the AFU. Ukraine’s high command decided to buy time with the blood (to be honest, they couldn’t do it any other way) but sent those with lower combat value to save troops for the main attack. Now, after all this time, the main attack wasn’t decisive or lethal, as some feared. They’re not idiots in the UA HQ. They are trained in the same schools as Russian generals. If you believe the opposite, you are wrong. They tried a type of blitzkrieg attack, probably under the influence of NATO generals, which proved futile. However, they are still attacking. A logical question arises. Why are they attacking? Is it time to call it off?

Often the response is, 1) They can’t do it, NATO doesn’t allow it; 2) It’s for PR purposes. I will offer answer no. 3), which you may agree or disagree with. Offense is the best defense.

While the grouping currently fighting is being spent, (at this point, already over 80.000 KIA/WIA/MIA), UA is doing the same thing that the Artemovsk group did – meaning: forming, training, and equipping another main battle group, and at the same time creating, again, a secondary group which will consist of defense units. The job of the latter will be to take and try to absorb the Russian counter-strike as much as possible without the need to sacrifice too much of the main strike group, in terms of men and equipment. The idea is similar to ours, to allow the enemy to attack, slow him down, wear him out as much as possible and when the time is right, strike again with a newly-created main group. Then repeat if necessary. You see, thecUA complains about men, but maybe not because of what we are thinking of.

Recruitment centers were under pressure to fulfill quotas. Being corrupt, they let many off. Kiev and bigger cities are full of military-capable men. The problem is the inefficiency of recruiters. All those who are fit will go to better training to create a new main group. All those unfit, young, old, women (maybe), who are intended to contain the Russian attack, will get minimal training. They don’t need anything better, just to know how to shoot, because they will be sitting in the trenches and fortifications, waiting for the Russian army to flush them out, but at the same time waiting for Russians to wear themselves down in the process. Everything that we have seen so far, from the beginning of the SMO and onwards, leads us to think that such development is not only possible but has already been used on several occasions. Such an approach is paid for dearly in terms of human lives and it’s not honorable, but those who fight with honor obviously don’t wage war.

In fact, we can find similar examples in the old Soviet manuals and teachings, some directly from the battlefield of WW2 against the Germans, where some low quality divisions were put out there first, to try to weaken the Germans, thus allowing more worthy Soviet troops to capitalize on a weakened enemy. Both sides know that.

Regarding weapons lost, losses in hardware have been considerable for the UA, but they have plenty. Keep in mind that weapons are flowing non-stop. The news that the USA was sending 190 MRAPS a few days ago passed almost unnoticed. There are many such cases. So, no, Ukraine will not run out of weapons anytime soon.

Personally, I believe that the path to victory in this conflict, chosen by Moscow, is to break the possibility of UA waging war for generations to come. Degradation, exhaustion, breaking their will, and utter defeat, a kind of war of attrition, but on a much grander scale is the accepted solution. Similar recommendations are written in Soviet strategic doctrine. That means that the war will not end anytime soon.

After that, there won’t be any Ukraine anymore.


Comment by M S:

I believe that the approach you are describing is exactly correct…. with one significant difference – what you call territorial defence, or old and feeble are nothing but Russian speakers! And what you call “trained” and/or strong soldiers are the “Real Ukrainians” if you get my drift (Banderites, if you really know what’s going on).

And if you ask me how is that possible? There is a simple answer – Ukraine is running 2 books (surprise) one for the nationalists and the other marked as ‘the rest – gender, age, health or skill is irrelevant.

Now if you accept the above premise then it is very easy to also understand why the general staff of UA would use the tactics they have …. both in Bachmut and now down in Zaporhozie ….. which is all skilled and well equipped units are used only in the event of high impact and high success operations…. whether they succeed or not after each operation they are rotated out and replaced with the so called “territorial units” … or Russian speakers cannon fodder.

This is also why the saying “to the last Ukrainian” has not alarmed Kiev at the slightest – neither Nuland nor Blinken ‘blinked’ about any of this – and for precisely above stated reason. This is their genocide agenda taken officially to another level.

It also explains why they doggedly deny that UA has too many casualties – they only count as Ukrainian losses those from the first list. Also they are more than happy to assign the second group as really a RF losses …. I know it’s ridiculous but again if you accept the above segregation of the forces it makes a perfect sense.

The total blackout of reporting other than official Kiev assigned sources and making publishing of any media criminal serves one purpose – to contain and scatter any documentation, evidence or even a tell sign that this is going on …. that is genocide at the fastest possible rate (if they don’t want to use gas chambers like the German nazis did) It is also very effective defence against RF army because they know that most of the trenches are manned by those who they [the Rusdians] really don’t want to kill!

I’ve watched this conflict daily from the day 1, from many sources and checked the background of it in detail also. So my statement here as much as you can call a speculation has a deep understanding behind it. Also I come from what you call the Eastern block and thoroughly understand how or why Banderites would generate 2 lists and create 2 layers of population – those who they are keen to preserve and the rest…. I’ve seen that attitude and as revolting as it is, Nuland and Blinken know whose blood is being spilled on the front line (mostly) ….. If RF ever wants to attain the SMO goals they will have to literally sweep clean the Ukrainian step to Lvov…. and even then they will face “the government abroad” claiming to be the real Ukraine same as Taiwan keeps insisting that it is the real China …. in both cases a ghost supported by US of A through smorgasbord of phony “international” fully subordinated organizations.

That’s the main reason I think Russia is not pushing to fasttrack the end of the conflict even though they currently already could. The aspect of building up a strong enough section of Global South which can economically and politically sustain viable opposition to the neocolonial western block – this aspect is as important as the millitary conflict with proxy Nato puppet in Kiev.

Anyone doubting that this is the case should examine at what point was Russia willing to start the open millitary confrontation with the west …. my answer would be – only when Putin knew that Russia has achieved strategic superiority to the West through the functional implementation of hypersonic capability into their nuclear doctrine. The West of course will deny this until blue in the face, but the fact that no nuclear weapon has been used as yet is screeming laud enough to those in the know (if you remember the ‘lettuce lady’ prime minister who didn’t last even 11 days is on record yielling ‘I’ll push the button, just give it to me’ – that was no joke she said that) Since then Pentagon has been happy to empty all armouries of EU so MIC an get decades worth of contracts to rearm, but they also clamped down on any early calls for going nuclear, which there were plenty to start with – a sign that West has had that plan on the table for a very long time …. bullying is one of the critical traits of any top political players in the west!

Yes there was plenty of ‘hope’/wishfull thinking that RF will break down from the applied pressure so going nuclear would never come to play….. but if anyone thinks that these people are just making stupid statements and don’t follow a predetermined game-plan they are grossly mistaken. Of course as time goes by plan A turns to plan B & also whatever was prepared ahead must be adapted …. accepting that Russian nuclear doctrine has gotten well ahead of US means that as much as Russia needs time to build a new political block called Global South to sustain it’s future existence, the West needs time to re-arm and more importantly figure out how to get on equal footing in the nuclear doctrine as well.

Considering they are hopelessly behind in the hypersonic space it will have to come from an asymmetrical approach – all that takes time and for time they will play! If it takes 100 false flags in Ukraine, new international crisis or anything else below the belt they will go for it – the entire western system has been built to run on the platform of creating uncontested supremacy by any means necessary – that is a doctrine which the rest of the world hates, protests against but so far can’t do nothing about!

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10 months ago

The two-pronged strategy makes perfect sense: eliminate the Russian speakers and spare the neo-Nazi supporting Ukrainians.

How many Ukrainians who support the Azov battalion have fled overseas and are forming cells in different countries. Once the native Russian speakers have been “cleared out”, will the emigres return to fight the Russians?

There seem to be more and more “Nazi extremist groups” popping up in the US lately. How many of them could be Ukrainian Azov battalion cells?

Like Antifa, they are given a free pass to do whatever they wish. This all helps the Biden regime to promote the idea of the growing threat of white supremacists (from the so-called “far right” — Trump supporters or simply “middle Americans” or anyone who is “anti-Biden”).   

Could these Ukrainian Azov battalion cells be funneled in and out of Ukraine?
Order out of chaos – play both ends against the middle.

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Paul Smith
Paul Smith
10 months ago

I seriously doubt this war can last much longer. Over 400,000 dead and horribly wounded Ukrainian soldiers will never return to the battlefield. Ukraine is still conscripting retarded persons and even 70+-year-olds. The smart soldiers are surrendering ASAP. They are out of weapons and the US is now doing a 180 and blaming Zelensky. Britain said no more Bradley and there will be no more Leopard tanks because they burn just as any fighting vehicle does. Ukraine is a beat dog!
Russia has not even begun to fight. 350 thousand volunteered in reserves, trained and ready for battle. They will most likely never see battle because the regular army can finish the job.
If the West fails to meet Russian terms, Russia will move in all the way to Kyiv and they should. The West is powerless to do anything but hide behind lie after lie.
It’s all over but the crying. The few hard-liners still giving ill advice are not living in reality.
If it’s not completely over by the end of this year it’s because the West is completely out of its mind.

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10 months ago

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