June 12, 2023

Ukraine War Day #474:

by yalensis via Awful Avalanche

Dear Readers:

“Disillusionment, confusion, shock, panic — this is how one must describe the West’s reaction to the first days of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive…” Pundit Vladimir Kornilov goes on to point out that the Ukrainians did exactly what they were told to do, and performed exactly as they were trained: A blitzkrieg consisting of a de-miner followed by Western tanks. With this technology, they were assured that they could punch their way to Crimea within a week.

Weeks before the “blitzkrieg”, this was exactly how media talking heads such as David Petraeus described the upcoming victory. “Everything will be decided in the course of 72-96 hours,” Petraeus assured those American philistines who still watch TV. But then, when the blitzkrieg failed miserably and left literally billions of dollars of Western technology burning on the plains of Zaporozhie, Western pundits made a swift turn and blamed the clueless Ukrainians: “Why would they just bunch up their tanks like that?” Why? Because that was how they were trained. Because it’s the only way to cross a mine field. Because these same Western idiots had assured their clients that their sapper machines were the best, their tanks were the best, their electronic warfare was the best; the Russians would just fold and run away at the sight of these magnificent machines…

But not to worry: By Sunday (yesterday), the Ukrainians had already drawn the correct conclusions: They stated that they would no longer try to butt head-first into Russian defenses like a crazy goat. Instead, they would go back to just snipping around the edges and the flanks. The pro-Ukrainian blogosphere quickly followed suit and bucked itself up. “Oh well, shit happens. Lessons learned.” Human denial is a very powerful emotion. Quickly recovering from their shock-denial stage of the previous days, the pro-Ukies started trumpeting and hooting like monkeys when their team was able to a few kilometers forward on one of the flanks and was able to plant its flag (albeit temporarily) in an abandoned village. (Still in the Security Zone, still not reaching even the First Line of Defense.)

The Danger Of Over-Confidence

Along those same lines, I have what I think is a rather good opinion piece written by some anonymous Russian blogger who goes by the nik “Voice of Mordor”. He analyzes Ukrainian mistakes (actually NATO mistakes) and attributes at least part of this to hubris-induced wrong conclusions which they drew from their previous successes (last fall) in the Kharkov offensive.

I think we all remember, especially those of us rooting for Russia, the dismay we felt as we watched helplessly, as Russian lines broke like twigs in a hurricane, first at Balakilya, then Kupiansk, then, Izium, and Liman. There was a lot of copium drunk at the time on the Team Russia benches, and certainly a lot of ‘splainin’ to do. But in the end, it was a rout, pure and simple. However, as we see now, that past defeat, paradoxically, may have been the father (or addled step-father) of more recent Russian victories. Not such a paradox after all: If it seems that the NATO side drew all the wrong lessons from their own successes, then there may be something in this that almost hints of Providence. Or at least the dialectics of the Greek Tragedy genre.

The other major theme of Mordor’s op-ed is the Russian soldier and the way he has regained his courage. There is obviously a psychological factor in every army. At the start of the war the average Russian soldier may not have been fully informed of the history, or why he had to fight. There was some shyness about slaying fellow Slavs and “brother” Ukrainians. It seems that psychological barrier has been crossed, so now everybody can just go at it…

Wrong Conclusions

The NATO Generals watched this operation unfold, and drew some critical conclusions from it. Erroneous conclusions.

Also taking into account, that the West does not factor into its equation Ukrainian human losses, the conclusions drawn have proven to be doubly tragic for the Ukrainians. Another factor that played its role here is the famous Ukrainian propensity to cargo-cult worship Western military technology. Which the Ukrainians regard as the best in the world, a sort of undefeatable miracle-weapon. And this in spite of the fact that they actually have real experience with these weapons, which should have offered counter proof. For example, the “Javelins” proved to be something less than a miracle-weapon. As did the HIMARS. With this experience under their belts, one would have thought they would know better than to start worshiping American and German tanks.

When they were planning their offensive on the Zaporozhie front, the NATO generals relied on the Kharkov experience. Which was a huge, critical mistake on their part. In addition to which, they assumed that the Russians would be terrified at the sight of huge columns of Western armor, accompanied by hordes of Ukrainian cannon fodder. They would take fright and run, like they always do.

But this time they didn’t run. The Russian soldier did not take fright. He did not run. He stood and he fought. He fought bravely and rather professionally. I can’t say to what extent a role was played here, by the historical memory of the Russian soldier. When he saw German armored “cats” trundling along Russian soil.

In any case, the results of the third night of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was such, that the Western media can speak about it only through clenched teeth; or just remain silent, as if pretending that nothing happened. Because the main part of the Ukrainian attackers were not able to make it even through the grey zone, let alone to the First Defensive Line of the Russian forces. The few that did make it that far, were only able to hold out for a couple of hours at the most, before being thrown back to where they started. And all of the Western “miracle-weapons”, all these famous “Leopards” and “Bradleys” are burning in rather impressive numbers.

Now, we all understand that it is not over yet. The fight continues. The UAF still possesses a lot of cannon fodder, and still commands a lot of armor. It is possible that, at some point, the Ukrainian and NATO generals will throw everything they have into a single point, completely reckless in regard to losses, which they never cared about anyway.

But when that happens, the Russians are waiting for them. The Russian soldier is ready for this. Because there is one interesting factor that I have noticed: The Russian soldier has regained his courage. He is not just smashing the enemy, but he is doing this in the same way that his forefathers did in 1943, in 1944, and in 1945. He knows that he is going to win. He is angry, he is merry, he is confident in himself.

And so, my Dear Pans, Welcome! Welcome to hell.