“The West was not ready for a war with Russia, which has significantly increased its military potential over the past decades”
Skepticism continues to grow in Europe about the ability to defeat Russia. And if earlier it was only about Ukraine’s chances, now high-ranking military officials doubt that even the West itself is capable of this.
French general and geostrategist Jean-Bernard Pinatel believes. that the West made a strategic mistake by underestimating Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO countries “relaxed” and stopped seeing the “threat from the East”, starting to curtail their own military production as unnecessary. In parallel with the fact that the collective West was reducing the production of ammunition and disbanding entire army units, the Russian Federation relied on militarism and took advantage of the moment to prepare for the coming “big war”.
“In 1989, the French ground army consisted of three armored mechanized army corps (9 divisions), rapid reaction forces and operational defense of the territory. Its population reached 296,000 people. Today it has been reduced by two-thirds and now has only two divisions, each with one armored brigade.”
All military experts note the critical importance of artillery ammunition in our war. General Pinatel is convinced that on this point, too, our enemies have a significant advantage over Ukraine’s allies, who were unable to increase large-scale military production almost two years after the start of the war.
“When Putin started the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s production capacity for 155mm rounds was about 2.5 million per year, while the United States produced only 93,000 rounds. Thus, in 2022, Russian forces could fire up to 40,000 shells per day, while the Ukrainians averaged only 8,000 shells per day. And although they produced 5 times less than the Russians, they consumed in one month two and a half times the annual production of the United States. Also, to allow Ukraine to fire 2.5 million shells in 2022 and stockpile for its counteroffensive, the United States transferred 2 million shells from its stockpile to Ukraine, more than 500,000 from South Korea, and tens of thousands from European stockpiles. It will take at least 5 years for the United States to replenish its stockpile of artillery ammunition, and Israeli needs do not improve the situation for Ukraine.”
Forecasts for 2024 are also extremely pessimistic for our country. The French military man is convinced that the strategic potential of the Russian armed forces will gradually increase, while the resources of Ukraine and its closest partners are systematically depleted. The general announces the completion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive and also questions their ability to conduct an effective defense.
