War or No War?

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“. . . there is a warfighting domain in which there is already activity underway” (Major General Gus McLachlan in a statement to Australian media during the US-Australian Talisman-Sabre military exercises)

A kinetic stage of warfare between the PRC and the US is stated in reports as increasingly probable by various analysts, such assessments recognizing the (non-kinetic) hybrid warfare domain is active and intensifying (involving US destabilization operations [Hong Kong], partition operations [Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, etc.], trade warfare, commercial sabotage efforts [Huawei, information warfare, etc.]).

Unfortunately restraint shown by the PRC to ongoing provocations is unlikely to significantly de-escalate situations as US-allied confrontational actions are intensifying (consistent with their broader conduct of hybrid warfare operations against successive nations). The similar response (restraint) shown by the Russian Federation to Western bloc actions[1],[2],[3]  have proven to be ineffective in de-escalation efforts (or at changing US-NATO bloc actions that are progressing towards a direct kinetic stage of conflict, the proxy warfare domain being active). Observation of broader developments should also indicate situations of war may result from the escalation and expansion of various active external conflicts. The US sponsored development of offensive capabilities of the Taiwan region, particularly missile strike potential against mainland targets (and the incompatibility of the DPRK enhancing its retaliatory capabilities with US objectives) is similarly increasing the probability the PLA will in time need to respond. Peace is clearly a priority but situations of war are often imposed.

References (Note: these also apply to the situation of the PRC):

[1] “I think everybody understands that an undeclared war against us is underway…..” [Russian State Duma’s Budget and Tax Committee Andrey Makarov] said. (“Undeclared war” forces Russia to boost defense spending — minister, Tass, October 27, 2018)

[2] “Western states are now threatening and slandering Russia with a ferocity that their governments “did not take the liberty” to unleash during the Cold War, [Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vassily] Nebenzia added. “Russia has been inexcusably threatened,” he said. “Do you understand the dangerous threshold to which you are bringing the world?” the Russian envoy asked.

[3] “If data on Russia-NATO power balance at the Western direction is analyzed, as well as military activity build-up rate at our borders, scale of combat equipment deployment, if the grade of Russia’s demonization is estimated, one can say that preparation to a real war is taking place. [Such] acts are usually undertaken at the forefront of a war [and it is evident] the US is preparing for a [potential] nuclear conflict……” [Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, President of the International Centre of Geopolitical Analysis]

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